Previewing the Brewers vs. D-Backs NLDS

It's finally here! What us as Brewers fans figured would be on the horizon at the start of September is now upon us with the National League Divisional Series opening Saturday at Miller Park against the Arizona Diamondbacks. It's a series, to be honest that is not an easy one for the Brewers, but definitely not one that are an underdog in, either.

As the Brewers learned in 2008, having an offense may be important, but winning a playoff series comes down to pitching. Both teams have named their Game 1 starters with Yovani Gallardo (17-10, 3.52 ERA), the man who started Opening Day, going for the Brewers and Ian Kennedy, who won 21 games (with a 2.88 ERA) during the season for the Diamondbacks. That's basically both aces going for Brewers manager Ron Roenicke and D-Backs skipper Kirk Gibson.

Winning Game 1 is crucial for both teams as the winner of that game gets a great advantage in this best-of-five series. You'd have to expect both guys to go deep into the game and keep that one close with things coming down to defense and clutch hitting. That's what scares me about the Brewers. There have been times this season where they just shut down with runners in scoring position and times when their defense has been shotty, at best. But they are at home and they did win 57 games there during the regular season which makes me believe they will be ready to click on all cylinders to start the series off.

If both pitchers are on their game it may take just a couple mistakes to turn the game. That's why I think the Brewers might have the edge with their offense because they can do so much with those mistakes, blasting them over the fence at Miller Park. That isn't just going on potential. In recent weeks, especially over the last week which saw them go 5-1 to close the season at Miller Park, the Brewers have been bashing home runs.
With both teams having solid bullpens with closers on both sides having over 45 saves apiece, that's what it could come down to.

Looking beyond to Game 2, the Brewers have a decision to make with Zack Greinke, but I'd lean toward him starting in Game 3 with either Shaun Marcum or Randy Wolf getting the nod in Game 2. Arizona has named starters for Games 2 and 3 with Tim Hudson (16-12, 3.49 ERA) going in Game 2 and Joe Saunders (12-12, 3.69 ERA) getting the nod in Game 4.

As a Brewers fan, part of me thinks this series will probably go four games with the Diamondbacks taking Game 2 and the Brewers pulling it together to shut down the Diamondbacks and win their first playoff series since the 1982 American League Championship Series. If it does go to a Game 5, the Brewers would most certainly tab Gallardo to get the start at home in front of what should be a rocking Miller Park. Having home field is so important to this team, rolling him out there with the home field would be what puts the Brew Crew over the top.


In case you were wondering, yes I will be in attendance for both games from the perch in section 223, row 6. A big shout out to those who I'll be spending my weekend with including @RJO25, @jessgaler and @aehlen. For the latter two, that is their first Wilber's Way shout out. Hope to see you at the tailgate to prepare for this great weekend of games! Giddy up!



Usually I'd do my Bears and NFL weekend preview in this part, but I haven't had a Brewers post in a bit and couldn't not do one heading into the weekend. That said, I still have my NFL picks and an abbreviated Bears preview.

Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, Ron "Chico" Rivera and the Panthers come to Soldier Field this weekend in a game that, honestly has me a bit worried. The Bears have to be favorites in this one, but Newton has been a highlight film through the first three weeks of the season and could post a threat against a weak Bears secondary. I still like the Bears' front four and their ability to get after Cam in the pocket and make Newton pass the ball downfield and field them, but from what we've seen from him, he can chuck it around the field.
That turns the attention back to the Bears defense. Fortunately for Mike Martz, the Panthers defense is nowhere close to the Packers defense and should make him look a little better this week. The key is simple, PUT THE BALL IN MATT FORTE'S HANDS!
Score prediction: Bears 24, Panthers 20.

Here's the rest of the picks. Last week I had another 10-6 week to push my record for the season to 33-15. Winners, as always, are in bold.
Bills at Bengals
Panthers at Bears
Titans at Browns
Lions at Cowboys
Vikings at Chiefs
Redskins at Rams
Saints at Jaguars
49ers at Eagles
Steelers at Texans
Falcons at Seahawks
Giants at Cardinals
Broncos at Packers
Patriots at Raiders
Dolphins at Chargers
Jets at Ravens
Colts at Buccaneers

Offense to blame for Bears lack of success against Packers

Jay Cutler and the Bears offense doesn't have an identity three weeks into the season and it's a problem.

After an offseason which pointed to an offense moving toward becoming more run oriented, the Chicago Bears have ran the ball and after running the ball just 12 times in each of the last two games, one has to wonder where that mindset has gone. It's a bigger question when the best player without argument on offense is the running back, Matt Forte. Forte has even been called the best player on the offense by Mike Martz, the guy calling the plays as the offensive coordinator, and it has to make the "whispers" that were surrounding his future in Chicago a lot more audible.

I normally don't get on my soapbox and say one guy either needs to change or go, but this might be the time to do so with Martz. Last season it took a stern talking to from Lovie Smith to focus more on the running game, the team took off and won eight straight en route to an NFC North title.

When a guy like Forte is responsible for over 50 percent of the offensive yardage through two weeks of the season, you know he's important and a guy the quarterback turns to in a tight spot. But to let him pretty much vanish against the Packers when it was needed doesn't make sense. Now, I get the Packers may have had a linebacker shadowing Forte when he released out of the backfield which wouldn't have given him a chance to get many yards, they are not going to do that every time and even when they do, he's a player that can create on his own in space, so you have to give him a couple chances. Especially when the running game isn't working. Essentially, those dump offs would work as an extension of the run game to give him a chance to contribute.

As for the loss to the Packers and not running, they fell behind by quite a bit and were forced to be more pass happy, which I'm not upset with, but for Forte to not be thrown to as much as he was is a problem to me. Especially when the ball was thrown down field it was either over thrown or dropped by a receiver. I don't fault Cutler for some of those overthrows, as the receiver fell down on a couple of them. The drops, however, are inexcusable but an issue all their own.

Sticking to Martz and the gameplan, with the time Jay had to throw in the first half, there were still too many three and outs. Part of that has to fall on Jay for not executing, but let's be honest, he wasn't that bad. I just don't see him and Martz seeing eye to eye on this thing. It's very clear in his quote tonight in the Chicago Tribune when he says "Until we get more consistent, I guess we don't (have an identity as an offense)."

The mistaken identity has something to do with the interceptions from Jay. Last year he threw 11 interceptions on passes that were intended for Johnny Knox. That leads one to believe he wasn't where he was supposed to be and/or he didn't fight for the ball. Well, Sunday Roy Williams was targeted four times and a whopping two of those times the pass was intercepted. I'd say there is some miscommunication there. Cutler has said it himself in the postgame, they need to get their timing better. If Roy is not on the field in the Red zone, he shouldn't be on the team. Plain and simple. 

One other thing I need to call Martz out on is his trick plays. They don't work. Throw them out of the playbook. Especially the ones involving the Wildcat formation. I like the idea of running the play and giving Forte a chance to run with it more than I actually like the play. It's just going to expose some other part of the offense that doesn't work. (See Devin Hester jumping the start)

Whatever the relationship is between Cutler and Martz, it's still not working right. The job of the coaching staff is to put the players in the best position to win games and right now, that's not happening on the offensive side of the ball. Whether it be Cutler, Williams, Forte or Knox, something isn't right and needs to get hashed out and soon, if they want to stay in this race with Detroit and Green Bay.

Matt Forte ranks 24th in the NFL in carries through three weeks. He needs to get more rushes for the Bears offense to have its identity.

Bears must focus on quieting Rodgers to win in Week 3

With all the attention this week on Jay Cutler following an all-around awful performance in New Orleans, it's hard to come back to earth a little bit and get ready for the Green Bay Packers. Yes, you know, the (Gulp!) Super Bowl Champions (I hate saying that) and Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers.

That's what has me thinking this game, for the Bears to be successful and have a shot at victory, the defense led by Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Julius Peppers, needs to step up and deliver a performance similar to what they turned in last season. With both teams being very similar to last year's squads - they each have 17 of 22 starters back from last year - I'd expect something similar to last year.

But, Aaron, the Packers won two of three meetings with the Bears last season, do you want the same performance as last season? The Packers scored 17, 10 and 21 points in three games against the Bears defense last season. Tell me the Lovie Smith version of the Tampa-2 doesn't give the Packers fits and frustrate the bejesus out of them and I'll tell you to get your eyes examined. There's just something about the Bears defense that keeps these games close.

The one thing that might make this game slightly different from last season is the fact that Rodgers is absolutely ripping defenses to shreds through the first two weeks of the season. With the Bears situation at both safety spots up in the air heading into the weekend, Rodgers could have another one of those games. But, if history is accurate - and with the number of guys back from last year it should give us a good jumping off point - the Packers will not be able to run very effectively against the Bears' seven-man front. The Packers have always been a pass-first team under Mike McCarthy anyhow, so I don't see it being a big concern.

You have to expect Rodgers to take his shots downfield and find ways to get at the inexperience (at least within the Cover 2) from Brandon Merriweather and Craig Steltz, who has seen some, but not significant time in the secondary.

Of course, none of who's back there really matters if Julius Peppers has another one of the games he did when the teams played in Week 3 of last season on MNF. I'd expect him to move around on the line and bounce between the left and right ends throughout the game in hopes of exposing something and keeping the Packers guessing where to send help.

For Cutler and the Bears offense, they'll have to find a way to cope without Gabe Carimi, who is expected to miss "several weeks" with his knee injury. If things were shaky with him, imagine how it will be without him. The allure is there for this Bears offense to test the Packers pass defense, too. It has been torched in the first two games, as has the entire unit really with a pass rush, namely Clay Matthews, that has little bite to this point in the young season.

So do the Bears exploit the injury of Nick Collins in any way? Expect Mike Martz to take some shots, but they'll have to be quick. And with Johnny Knox and Devin Hester both having their druthers to this point of the season, I'm not sure it will mean much. The duo has been thrown to 34 times, but has a combined eight catches in two games. Roy Williams joins the rivalry and could have a shot at making plays down the field and might be on his own in doing so, if he's able to get healthy after missing last week's game.

Then there's Matt Forte. Is there anything he can't do? You have to expect him to be a factor in the passing game, but you'd also have to think Martz is going to make a point to run more with him this week, too, after Lovie made a point in the media to say he was going to get the pass-run ratio closer to 50-50. It will help having Marion Barber available for the first time this season and his ability to punish defenses could be the spark the Bears need on the ground to get something going and help play keepaway from the Packers offense.

The prediction: OK, here's how I see it shaking out. The Bears are at home in this one and will be ready to make big changes after losing the last two meetings last season. Whether they're big or not remains to be seen, but we'll notice them. If the defense can make the Packers work their way down the field and not give up the big play, they could force Rodgers into his first interception of the season and must find a way to create turnovers in general. That should put the offense in a good spot to produce points.
If that offense can get on track, finding an answer to the Packers blitzes with quick hits to Matt Spaeth and Forte and are allowed to run after the catch, the offense will have its desired success. Martz has told the offense the Packers  play a lot of man defensively, so to break it down even more, they have to win those one-on-one battles 100 percent of the time.
For the defense, get a turnover or two and get pressure with those front four and they'll be in good shape. It's the gameplan every week, but against this offense is paramount. They always seem to give the Packers fits and will find a way to do it again on Sunday.

The Score: This one will be tight and McCarthy still hasn't shaken that "can't win the close one" tag and that's why I have the Bears winning a 20-17 tight one. As good as Gould!

Just as I did with the NFC Championship game, I'm going to put the Twitter widget to work here. Seemed to put all the info in one central location and made it fun to see what was going on from both perspectives.


And now to the NFL Picks for Week 3. Last week I went 13-3 which puts me at 23-9 for the season. That's a 72 percent success rate which is good enough to put me in the top 4,841 in the world on ESPN.com. But enough bragging. On to this week's prognosis. Winners, as always, in bold.
Patriots at Bills
49ers at Bengals
Dolphins at Browns
Broncos at Titans
Lions at Vikings
Texans at Saints
Giants at Eagles
Jaguars at Panthers
Chiefs at Chargers
Jets at Raiders
Ravens at Rams
Falcons at Buccaneers
Packers at Bears
Cardinals at Seahawks
Steelers at Colts
Redskins at Cowboys

So that's my Bears-Packers score prediction. What is yours? Comment below and tell me one thing that will determine things beyond your score!

Is Jay Cutler controversy media created?

A Wednesday wouldn't normally be a busy day in the world of the NFL, but with it being Bears/Packers week, things usually get interesting. As I'm combing around Twitter today I come across a link from ProFootball Talk that says Fox admitted to falsifying headlines in the season opener against the Falcons.

The admittal of such things only cements my thoughts that the whole controversy surrounding Jay in the NFC Championship game last January was created by the media and specifically Fox, which broadcast the NFC Championship game.

Let's be real, a TV director of a live sporting event has a shot of all the cameras in front of them and can dictate when they show a certain camera. It's why you don't see a shot of the coach picking his nose at random times of the game or warming himself up and usually see him yelling at someone when you would expect him to be.
The quote from the Fox Sports producer was that the falsified headlines were used to better portray the national perception. Well, if you had to make them up, how did they show the national perception? I know for a fact the Chicago Tribune and Sun-Times talked with practically the entire Bears locker room and every single guy in that locker room had Jay's back.

But that wouldn't fit the perception many have of Jay. They'll say they saw him on the sideline in that game "pouting" and "keeping to himself" and not "cheering on his teammates like Charles Woodson in the Super Bowl." Well, how do you know he wasn't? We were shown six random seconds with Jay kept to himself on the sideline. Who's to say he hadn't been talking with Caleb Hanie, the backup quarterback, about what to look for.

Why am I talking about this? Only because Fox has made this great decision to make the news up and tell us what to think. Makes sense this is the same organization as Fox News which also owned the News of the Wold in Britain that hacked voice mails of so many in London. I guess we shouldn't expect anything more from a company with those types of journalistic ethics.

Helping things out, I guess, too, is the fact that it is also Bears-Packers week. That also brings me to furthering the perception of Jay was his reaction to questions in the conference call with Packers beat reporters today. The reporters were asking about the incident from January and he came back with one-word answers and was no help to them. The fact of the matter is if I'm sick of talking about it, he's most certainly sick and tired of dealing with it. That's a dead horse and doesn't need to be kicked anymore. The story is up on Packers.com, if you want to take a look for yourself, and I'm pretty sure they have the audio to go with the transcript.

If I'm going to cover some media, I laughed when I saw these guys rush to Twitter and post this right away how they were shut down by him when asking questions about the game from months ago. I know these reporters aren't around Jay every day like the beat writers from the Tribune and Sun-Times, but one should know they might get some sort of reaction similar to this.

On top of it, Cutler and even coach Lovie Smith were dealing with the Fox nonsense with the Chicago media today with Lovie pretty much playing the "we get no respect" card to the team given this development. And, he's totally right.

Tomorrow is the full Bears-Packers preview, plus my NFL Week 3 picks.

Brewers Nation: Don't panic as postseason looms

Call me the eternal optimist or a fan that thinks the last week of the Brewers season was what I called it a couple weeks back, a market correction. That's why I'm not worried about this team going forward to not only clinch the National League Central title and beyond into the NL Divisional Series.

And before you jump on me for blindly thinking like this, I'll tell you why. Of course there's Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, a healthy Rickie Weeks getting healthy and back in his groove, but most importantly a steady pitching staff that has been the backbone of this team all year.

Yes there have been (and almost always are) ups and downs over the course of a baseball season. That has certainly been the case for the Brewers, but over the last week to 10 days, it has been a bit of feast or famine for this Brewers team as it works itself out of the funk it was in against the Cardinals and Phillies at the start of the month.

The biggest key I can take out of the funk and even the great weekend showing in Cincinnati was that while Braun and Fielder have played well, most would agree they are not on the tears we saw them on at times during the season. These things go in cycles and you'd have to think things are coming back toward at upswing at the right time. Last Tuesday night's game against the Rockies showed what both mean to this team, combining to homer for both of the team's runs that led to the dramatic walk-off victory (Did you see us in the 223?). The two of them getting hot at the right time, in the playoffs no less would make this team almost unstoppable. While that may be a bit of me wishing, I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility as niether have shown signs of cracking under the pressure of clinching a division title in this race.

There are no trades that could help a team looking into the playoffs into September, but that's what the return of Rickie Weeks from the disabled list feels like for this Brewers team. Sure this team went on it's great 27-5 run while he was on the DL, but the offense was not what it was with him in it as the pitching carried this team. Manager Ron Roenicke will tell you this team needs Weeks if it wants to make noise in the playoffs.

Weeks finally played his first full game since coming off the DL Monday night and said he felt pretty good about things. It's been a slow process, but you can see he's starting to get his bearings back at the plate and will serve as great protection to Braun and Fielder hitting out of the No. 5 spot in the lineup with his power and speed that could set the table for the bottom half of the order to do some damage.

Of course a team is only as good as it's starting pitcher and this season has shown what that looks like in Milwaukee for the first time in a long time. Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf and even Chris Narveson were the big part of the late July-August push that put this team where it is now. While they've had a couple hiccups in recent weeks, I'd give them a couple passes as you'd expect this offense to back them with a couple runs each night, so it's not all their fault for a couple of the losses, you just want them to stay consistent and for much of the last week, the top four especially have been spot on. There really isn't much question as to whether they can keep it up because they have for the entire second half of the season.

This team has all the tools it needs to be successful this postseason. The next week will be a bit of preparation for that as I'd expect Roenicke to tweak the pitching rotation to line things up for the NLDS, but playing meaningful games up until the final day of the season will pay dividends. Should be fun to watch unfold.

An un-Bearable performance against Saints

A photo can't do justice to how ugly a performance by a team was, but maybe that one will come close. Jay Cutler was running for his life all game, Mike Martz only called 12 running plays to take some of the pressure off him and the defense was picked apart by Drew Brees and all that was very clear in the 30-13 final.

Things started out fine for the offense, which behind Cutler, scored on its second drive of the game and took a 7-0 lead on a Cutler TD pass. What followed from there was a beat down in every sense of the word. The Saints racked up six sacks of Cutler and had him running for his life most of the game. An offense would normally keep a defense off balance by calling some running plays and letting Matt Forte get things done on the ground. Forte, who played his home games when he played at Tulane at the SuperDome, was the only player who did much of anything, catching 10 passes, as Cutler could do little more than check down time after time. That's good for no one and, while it helps Forte when he goes back to the bargaining table with Bears GM Jerry Angelo, does little to develop the offense.

Cutler looked dejected after the game. The sack pictured in the photo at the top of this post came off a blown block by tight end Kellen Davis, the player kept around because he was a better blocker than Greg Olsen. Huh? I don't think Cutler needs to defend his performance. How often can a guy get whacked and keep getting up before his actions speak for him. I wrote last week, the key was in his hands and arm, but that was me having faith in this offensive line to figure things out. Clearly that's not happening. After the injury of Cabe Carimi, things will likely get worse before they get better for Jay heading into next week (Gulp!).

And now, the injuries are starting to pile up beyond Carimi, as Earl Bennett, Roy Williams, Chris Harris and a growing number of players missed the entire or part of Sunday's game. Coach Lovie Smith expects to get most of them back, but Carimi is expected out for at least two weeks with a knee sprain and Bennett has a bruised sternum.

Yet, as rough as it were, the score was 16-13 deep into the third quarter, but then things fell apart.

As for the defense, I can't get on Brian Urlacher for a bad performance. To be clear, he didn't have a bad game at all, in fact, he played decent. But, football is team game and the other 10 guys around him had some hiccups. Specifically, Henry Melton, who I called out last week after he had a great game, to back it up with another strong showing to cement his place as a solid player. Well, no tackles means he fails. And Julius Peppers and the rest of the defensive line is right there with him. It's like a tale of two games as it was a completely different showing from the defense.

It goes beyond the line, too, as the secondary was torched for a 79-yard touchdown with Harris out and Major Wright in the game, showing he didn't have a clue what he was doing. Then, when he got injured Brandon Meriweather didn't know what was going on either.

It may come as a bit of a shock to some, but one game doesn't make a season and we knew the weakness of the team would be exposed at least a couple times throughout the season. This was just the first test, and it did not go well. Lovie has made it clear things will be addressed with the offense. Last year when he did that, the team won eight straight games. Sometimes he's got to pull the reigns on the Mad Scientist he's got for an offensive coordinator. With the Packers coming to Soldier Field next week, it has to get addressed sooner rather than later.

Bears success in Week 2 lies on Jay Cutler's shoulders

After making a statement that they should not be overlooked this season back in Week 1, the Bears go on the road this week to take on the New Orleans Saints.
All of the talk this week revolves around the noise in the SuperDome and the blitzes the Saints and defensive coordinator Greg Williams will send at Jay Cutler. That makes Cutler's game Sunday the most important of any other player on the field, or maybe a close second to the five guys on the offensive line in picking up those rushers and dealing with the noise.
It's an area, that could get rough considering the three sacks the Bears gave up last week without much blitzing from the Falcons. If the Saints are able to load up on one side and the linemen are a couple paces slow in getting off the ball because they can't hear the snap count, things could get dicey. I put things then on Jay's shoulders to make the quick reads and calls to get the ball out of there in time from the play calls of Mike Martz.
As I wrote Monday, Martz showed some signs of helping out his quarterback in Week 1 with short passes mixed with the down-the-field routes and Jay hit them, specifically the touchdown pass to Matt Forte and the long pass and run by Devin Hester that set up another touchdown. He'll have to adapt the same way this week. A change this year is his playcalling from the booth, which gives a different vantage point and focusing on the weapons this offense has next to Jay.
Martz seemed to do a decent job calling plays that featured each of those weapons in Matt (Pay the man!) Forte, Devin Hester, Johnny Knox and Roy Williams. All four guys, and I could throw Matt Spaeth in the mix, too, had an impact last week. How often has a Bears fan been able to say that of four and maybe five receivers? The credit for that goes to both Martz and Cutler for getting them in position to make the right plays.
Will that pay off this week in New Orleans? With the blitzers coming from all angles, it will if Jay get's that extra second over the middle to get the ball out and let those receivers run after the catch. That's the one area the sending of blitzers from all angles allows. If Hester catches a ball in space and has a chance to turn on the jets, he can run away from anyone.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears got a great performance from their front four and saw Brian Urlacher have one of his better games in the last couple years. If the line can have a similar effort this week, they will be in a great spot to win.
It's no secret Drew Brees can pick a defense apart if he has time to survey the field and find an open receiver. If the Bears are able to get pressure on him with the likes of Julius Peppers, Harry Melton, Anthony Adams and Israel Idonoje they could have a good shot at winning.
The one question mark is what they do about the Saints' running backs of Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram. Ingram would be a more conventional back, but Sproles ripped apart the Packers defense at times and I'd be tempted to put a safety or a defensive back on him if he splits out wide. There really isn't another way to keep up with him. I'm not sure Lance Briggs can keep up with him and I know Nick Roach can't, which is why the DB option makes sense. The Bears will have to find a way to quiet that down, as you'd expect Sean Payton to exploit that matchup in some way.
The biggest thing that might propel this defense is having the heart and soul of it back in Urlacher who left to lay his mother to rest in Texas Wednesday, after she passed away Monday. You know he is going to play possessed and I expect the other 10 guys on the field to play for him. Knowing this unit, they are very close knit and have been together for a long time. I heard it in an interview with Lance Briggs today and he was feeling for Lac and it just seems like a week for this unit to have one of those games where they make the great plays. It is just meant to be.
The Pick: I see a few scores in this game and it will be a close one. But I'm confident the Bears line can continue to improve and, if they can get out front early in this game to take the crowd out of things a bit, can get the job done against the blitzes. On defense, I know Julius Peppers will have a great game, but would expect someone else to emerge on the line. Adams? Maybe.
That's why I see Bears 30, Saints 27 as the final score. It's that close and if the Bears can come away with this road win, they have to be taken very seriously heading into Week 3.

NFL Picks
Last week I went 10-6, which for the first week wasn't that bad. Once the landscape of the league gets laid out, it will get better. Let's jump right into Week 2. My picks are in bold, as always.
Raiders at Bills
Bears at Saints
Browns at Colts
Chiefs at Lions
Packers at Panthers
Ravens at Titans
Bucs at Vikings
Jaguars at Jets
Cardinals at Redskins
Seahawks at Steelers
Cowboys at 49ers
Bengals at Broncos
Texans at Dolphins
Chargers at Patriots
Eagles at Falcons
Rams at Giants

Bears make statement with Week 1 win over Falcons

Let's be honest, you didn't have the Bears beating the Falcons Sunday to open the NFL season did you? I'll be honest, I figured if they were going to win, it was going to be close. As the game progressed it was clear one team came into the game prepared, the other was not.
The Bears were clearly prepared on both sides of the ball. I'll start with the defense because with plays from Julius Peppers and the above pictured Brian Urlacher, the unit dominated Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense. It was more than just Urlacher and "Pepp" as Henry Melton became an opening day starter and made his presence felt. As Brad Biggs said in his "10 Thoughts" in today's Chicago Tribune, Melton showed flashes last season (his first career sack was the one that ended Brett Favre) and playing the Three technique in this scheme means he will play a prominent role. He had two sacks Sunday and an unbelievable seven hits on Ryan meaning he practically lived in the offensive backfield. He has a chance to be a big part of this defense this season and could be a great compliment to Peppers and Israel Idonije on the other end, along with tackle Anthony Adams. I will not anoint him just yet, as he has to back it up with another game, but he's well on his way.
Of course, Melton's emergence would add young blood to the "usual suspects" that contributed on defense. I mentioned Peppers, who had a couple sacks and won't get credit, but forced the fumble Urlacher recovered and ran in for a touchdown. Urlacher's interception showed he's still as athletic as ever. And then there's Charles Tillman. I tweeted during the game about Peanut after he forced yet another fumble. In the NFL Preview edition of SI, Peter King broke down the best players at knocking the ball loose and he was not mentioned. He's just notorious for it.
On the offensive side of the ball, what a difference nine months made for Jay Cutler, who threw for two touchdowns and over 300 yards. If you're a "real" Bears fan, you can't not root for the guy (Yes, I know that's a double negative. Figure it out.) and he delivered. The offensive line was not great, but wasn't awful and has time to get better as the season moves on as Jay had time to throw and make decisions out there. I'd have to say the biggest part in that was the play calling by Mike Martz who, aside from a couple bone headed Wildcat and end around calls, kept the Falcons defense off balance with enough plays downfield to open up the screen passes intended for Matt Forte and short plays for Devin Hester that allowed both to get out and roam.
I'd have to say the wide receivers in this game had a big hand in things, too. Roy Williams may have had just a couple catches before leaving with a groin injury, but he opened some things up for Johnny Knox and Hester, who both made big catches on some long third downs. It has seemed to be something that was missing for this team in recent years. If they can stretch the field, it will only make Jay more dangerous of a passer.

So, I'm not anointing the Bears anything after one win, but it has to make the people that picked them to finish the season 7-9 take notice and show this division will not be handed to Green Bay. Seems every year Lovie Smith is under estimated as a coach and year after year finds a way to get the most out of his players on a team that has won the NFC North three of the last six years.

New faces set to push Bears; Plus Week 1 NFL picks

All week I've been building up to the start of the season. Yesterday I made my Super Bowl prediction, which was a bit outside of the box and Tuesday I took a stab at each division, setting the table for the playoffs. Now it's time to take a closer look at my favorite team, the Chicago Bears. They're on the flag at the top of the page if that comes as a surprise.

The offseason for the Bears was like every other team, jam packed into a month. General Manager Jerry Angelo made some moves to bring new faces into the fold at key positions and it has to be the biggest question mark heading into the campaign. Normally, this wouldn't be an issue, but given the (lack of) offseason teams had, it becomes more an issue.
The biggest names entering the fold are on offense in the form of Roy Williams at wide receiver, who I am not excited to have as the No. 1 receiver ahead of Johnny Knox. Apparently Knox isn't either and it only looks like a matter of time before Knox gets his spot back as the top guy. That might best suit the offense and quarterback Jay Cutler, who can use the weapons of Williams and another former Cowboy in Sam Herd to make an impact. If anything, the front office went out and got guys to push the guys in the receiving corps to step their games up, which they have.
Of course, the key to everything with this team is the offensive line. It is why Angelo and coach Lovie Smith decided to take former Wisconsin Badger Gabe Carimi with their first pick and put him at right tackle.
The biggest move in the offseason wasn't one that had the Bears adding players, but rather sending one away in the Greg Olsen trade to Carolina. It has to seem like offensive coordinator Mike Martz was allowed to call some shots with his offensive personnel. If they don't show signs early, expect coach Lovie Smith to step in like he did last season and get this team turned in the right direction.
One thing not being talked about is how strong Jay Cutler has looked in camp and in preseason. He's clearly slimmer and has made it clear football is his No. 1 focus after his wedding was broken off just before the end of the lockout. I'd say this could be a better season than last for Jay and one where he steps up and leads this team more so than ever before.
My reasoning for that thought is what some are considering a weakness for this team and that is the aging defense. Guys like Brian Urlacher and Charles Tillman continue to play at very high levels alongside Lance Briggs and Julius Peppers. They may have lost a step, but with the lockout, that may put them at an advantage, at least to start the season. Chris Harris remains at the top of his game from his safety position and the addition of Brandon Meriweather from New England could be one that pays dividends, as well. He's a guy that's made the Pro Bowl in two of the last four seasons and could be a factor immediately.
Am I worried about the distractions of Matt Forte trying to negotiate a contract and Lance Briggs asking for a trade? As Jerry Angelo told the media today at Halas Hall, no. Both know what is at stake as the season approaches and they are in prep mode for the season. So, if he's not worried, I'm not either.
What am I thinking about this team's finish? Well, the first three weeks are going to be tough with the Falcons at home, a trip to New Orleans and the Packers all on the docket. Things turn around after that with winnable games against the Panthers and Lions and Vikings. I'd be happy to get through that run at 4-3 and then get ready to make a run in the second half of the season.
Season prediction: As the season goes on, this offensive line will only get better. With the youth up front, that's an obvious point, but it will pay dividends after the Bye Week and a trip to London. The Packers seem too good to not win the division title, but don't count the Bears out of a Wild Card berth. I see them going 10-6 and getting the No. 5 seed.

Falcons at Bears Preview
I might as well get into the Week 1 matchup with the Falcons while I'm going strong here and it is definitely a tough one for the Bears and promises to be one of the better ones to kickoff the season.
Carimi has to be one of the main focuses in this one with the guys the Falcons have on the outside to rush the passer.
Those matchups will go a long way in determining if the Bears will be able to do anything on offense. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Cutler is going to rely on softening things up by looking to Matt Forte early and often and going with short routes that will allow him to start to look downfield. To me, the secondary is where you can beat the Falcons. The key is just having time to throw the ball down field.
As for the other side of the ball, the Bears defense in recent years has found way to keep Michael Turner in check and make Matt Ryan beat them. The only problem is that he has done just that. They were all close games and this one should follow that trend, too. I'm saying that guy at the top of the page is going to need to be a big factor and he will be.
Score: Bears 24, Falcons 21

And now to the NFL picks. Winners are in bold. I'll have the results in next week's picks post.
Saints at Packers
Falcons at Bears
Bills at Chiefs
Bengals at Browns
Lions at Bucs
Titans at Jaguars
Colts at Texans
Eagles at Rams
Steelers at Ravens
Vikings at Chargers
Giants at Redskins
Panthers at Cardinals
Seahawks at 49ers
Cowboys at Jets
Patriots at Dolphins
Raiders at Broncos

Wilber's Way Super Bowl predictions made

Yesterday I broke down my NFL regular season picks, picking division winners and Wild Card teams that will make up January's playoffs. So here we go with the seeds and the matchups with my Super Bowl XLVI picks that will be certainly scrutinized throughout the season.

NFC Playoff teams and seeds
1. Packers (12-4)
2. Eagles (11-5)
3. Falcons (10-6)
4. Rams (9-7)
5. Bears (10-6)
6. Saints (10-6)

Wild Card matchups
Saints at Falcons: I see these two splitting during the season and the home team will have the advantage. That's why I see the Falcons taking this very tight and close game.
Bears at Rams: Can Sam Bradford take it to the Bears defense? That will be the difference in this game. This game is all about Julius Peppers, which is why I see the Bears winning a spot in the Divisional round. As I'll talk about in my Bears season preview tomorrow, I expect this offensive line to come together in a few weeks and solidify. With that Jay Cutler will have a career year that carries this team.

Divisional Round
Falcons at Eagles: Michael Vick in big games means bad things for the Eagles. Add to that the chip on the Falcons' shoulder from the thumping handed down by the Packers last season and this team has its eye on the prize and gets it done on the road. The so-called dream team can't get it done when it matters most, just showing chalk doesn't rule in the NFL playoffs.
Bears at Packers: Lambeau Field is a place the Bears historically don't play well (Well at least since Rex Grossman left town). No Packers fan I know is giving the Bears a shot in this game, but they'll have a lead for most of the game before Aaron Rodgers steps in and cements himself with a great fourth quarter comeback to break my heart once again. Yeah, I hate the guy.

NFC Championship
Falcons at Packers: The Falcons will be looking for payback from the last season's playoffs, but coming into Lambeau evens things out. Repeating as champs is one of the most difficult things a team can do and I have a hard time seeing all the breaks go the way of Green Bay another season. That's not to say this one won't be close, but just like the last time the Packers hosted an NFC Title game, a bad break late will turn the tide and the Falcons will head to the Super Bowl.

AFC Playoff teams and seeds
1.Chargers (13-3)
2. Patriots (12-4)
3. Steelers (11-5)
4. Texans (10-6)
5. Ravens (10-6)
6. Jets (10-6)

Wild Card matchups
Jets at Steelers: This was last year's AFC Title game. A lot of things will change for these teams throughout the season. If the Jets can find a way to limit the mistakes from Mark Sanchez, they'll be in this game. And with a Jets defense that will limit Ben Roethlisberger, I see the Jets taking this one on the road.
Ravens at Texans: Houston not only makes the playoffs, but hosts a playoff game. And with the young guns on offense and a revamped defense, it's almost like a passing of the guard in Houston as the Texans take it to Ray Lewis and company.

Divisional Round
Texans at Patriots: As good as the Texans could look the week prior, they will be humbled by the machine in Foxboro. The Pats will be just too good this season on both sides of the ball. This one might be ugly.
Jets at Chargers: The best offense in the league with Philip Rivers at the helm will meet a defense with all the wrinkles it needs to shut it down. This one will be knock down and drag out with Gang Green finding a way and LT putting the dagger in his old team's season.

AFC Championship
Jets at Patriots: You thought that Bears/Packers NFC Championship game last season was big, wait until this one jumps off. The coaches are huge personalities and players on both sides will make this a great one and a true chess match. So will it be the old guard or the new guard? I think Rex Ryan finally backs up his talk and guides his team to the Super Bowl with a big play from the Jets defense on Tom Brady that sets it up for Mark Sanchez to deliver to Plaxico Burress.

OK, got all that? Here we go...
Super Bowl XLVI....... Falcons vs. Jets: The Falcons have the advantage at quarterback, wide receiver and running back, but going against the Jets defense, it turns the attention to the Jets offense. Can Sanchez do it on the big stage? The Falcons aren't as talked about on defense, but I still think they are solid, especially with their front seven. That could be the difference as I see the Jets leaning on a running game with Sanchez.
With things close, it will come down to which defense can make the big play that gives a short field to its offense, and that's where I think the Jets make their move and make life easy on LT and Sanchez.
Score: Jets 24, Falcons 20.

NOTE:
There ya go. What did you think? Be sure to comment below and tell me where I screwed up.
Remember, Thursday I'll have my full Bears preview and my Week 1 picks for the Pick 'em polls.

Wilber's Way NFL Preview edition is here!

The time has finally come! It's opening week of the NFL season, so I'm going to shift the blog a bit this week in that direction to get things kicked off. I'll introduce a couple staples along the way I'll try to have posted each week so you'll be sure to check in and see what I'm thinking on some things.
 In past year's I've broken down each division. This year, like last season, I'm thinking that is just too much work for something no one really reads. I, basically just want to go on record with my NFL picks so people can come back to them later in the season.
Well, here we go.

First, the NFC
North: This kind of spoils my Bears preview in a couple days, but I can't see the Packers losing the division this season.  As much of a Bears fan as I am I read a lot about the team I live two hours from and know what they're doing. Their only weakness is going to be that O-line again, just as it was last year. I didn't watch a second of preseason and know there were hiccups of epic proportions at times. Aaron Rodgers is too good to let it drag him down and that defense flies around the field and causes chaos unlike anything else in the league. They'll be a force and will be 12-4 this season. That will not be without a fight from my Bears, who I have earning a Wild Card spot this season. Sorry, one of my favorite publications has the Lions making the playoffs which I cannot disagree with more. I know you know football, but you have to walk before you can run. Donovan McNabb in Minnesota will have its ups and downs and that defense is awful. So my Bears find a way and make the dance.

East: Is anyone on the planet not picking the Eagles to win this division? Well, I'm right there, with them. All the publications are jumping on Michael Vick for MVP. I'm not there yet, as he was very pedestrian towards the end of last season (starting with the Bears game). But he'll be better this season with the big money in his back pocket and all of their weapons around him are just too good. Oh, and the moves they made with their defense have them in a very good spot too. Tight ends and running backs are going to be the only guys getting passes when you play that D. That's why I have them going 11-5 this season.

West: Last year the Seahawks made the playoffs with a 7-9 record and knocked off the defending champs in the Wild Card round. Sam Bradford will continue to be the savior in St. Louis and the Rams will win this division as he makes huge strides toward being one of the premiere passers in this league as I see them going 9-7 this season. Not great, but a step in the right direction for a team that continues to get better on both sides of the ball. 

South: This might be the best division in the NFC and even the league this season and could come down to a three-horse race. But really, it's a two-team race with New Orleans and Atlanta holding the key to the division title. The Saints defense was gashed last season at times and hasn't gotten any better. In fact, they've probably gotten worse, despite what you read in SI saying otherwise, I disagree. On offense, yes Drew Brees is a beast, but naming Olin Kruetz as a key offensive line acquistion shows it wasn't that great of a free agent periord. He's a great leader, but was slightly above average, at best over the last couple seasons. I don't see their line and running game being that much of a consistent factor this season, opening the door for the Falcons to repeat as division champs. That playoff loss last season opened their eyes and they will be focused. For the Bucs, they have a shot at helping the South sweep the Wild Card spots in the playoffs if they can continue to build on last season. I really like their quarterback Josh Freeman. Speaking of QBs, it's going to be a rough year again in Carolina for Cam Newton. It was a rough rookie year for Peyton Manning, too, so don't read too much into it. I'm not sold on him being great, but I'm not sold on him being awful, either. We'll have to see.

Wild Cards: Bears (10-6)- They key will be how will Roy Williams steps up, or allows Johnny Knox to take over the No. 1 receiver position. That, of course, means the offensive line has to give Jay enough time to throw the ball. I'll have more on them tomorrow, so I won't get too deep into it now.
Saints (10-6)- Drew Brees is too good to let this team miss the playoffs. This year will be all about the shootouts if they want to string wins together.

Playoff teams and seeds
1. Packers (12-4)
2. Eagles (11-5)
3. Falcons (10-6)
4. Rams (9-7)
5. Bears (10-6)
6. Saints (10-6)

 AFC
North: This division comes down to the Steelers or the Ravens. Which will it be? The Steelers just seem to get it done in those big games and it's all because of Ben Roethlisberger. I like Joe Flacco, but Big Ben is just on a diffeent level that performs in those big games. He gets it done in those games and the Steelers are winning this division. The Bengals and Browns? Well, the stripes in Cinncy won't be a factor and the Browns will show flashes, but can't compete with Steel City or B-More. Give me the Steelers winning this division with an 11-5 mark and the Ravens close behind in a Wild Card spot.

South: When was the last time the Colts weren't a lock to win this divison? It's been forever. Peyton Manning's neck and lack of arm strength have everyone, including me question who will win the division this season. I worked it by process of elimination. The Jaguars just cut David Garrard and are going with a rookie this season under center. Something tells me Jack Del Rio won't be around after this season. Too many headaches, sorry Jags fans, the blackouts will be the beginnings of your worries. In Tennessee there's a coach not named Jeff Fischer on the sidelines and that doesn't sit well with me. Plus, Matt Hasselback is in town with a rookie itching to get in the game. Things go south, and they will, look for this thing to go even more out of control. That leaves Houston. They have a premiere wide receiver in Andre Johnson, what could be a top-tier running back in Arian Foster and a QB in Matt Schaub that could make this offense very dangerous. The question mark lies on defense where Wade Phillips has made Mario Williams an outside linebacker in installing his 3-4 defense. Not a big deal, but you have to expect some hiccups along the way. This all comes down to how long Peyton is out for and how well he plays, but I might be on board with everyone else in thinking if Houston is finally going to make the playoffs and have its first winning season in franchise history, this is the year.

East: Another year and another Patriots division title? Yep. And this year could be another one of those great years for the Pats, who welcome Chad Ochocinco into the fold and will have him determined the way Randy Moss was when he first got to Boston. Look for that defense to get a little better this year, too, and be a force that will have Bill Bellichek's boys 11-5 this season. The Jets will be right in the mix, as well, but after missing out on getting a shutdown corner to compliment Darelle Revis on the other side, this secondary might be a little soft (not awful, just with a hole or two) that good quarterbacks will find ways to exploit. The Bills will make vast improvements this season and the Dolphins will be solid, too, but I don't see them being on the level of the Jets and Pats.

West: The Chargers had the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense last season and missed the playoffs because their special teams were absolutely horrendous at times. That won't happen again, even with Norv Turner leading the way, as this team will go 13-3. I know Philip Rivers is getting a lot of MVP talks and he deserves it with the year he had last year with his best receiver a no-show until November. Their closest run should come from the Broncos and Kyle Orton. I just like John Fox and his style and think he'll have this team in a position to win. Why no Chiefs in the hunt? Their starters lost to the Packers backups in the preseason finale. They've looked absolutely awful in preseason and will take a couple steps back this year. Just hand the ball off to Thomas Jones

Wild Cards: Ravens (10-6) This team is solid, but comes up short in the regular season against the Steelers. That's the difference between the division champs.
Jets (10-6) There is little to not like about this team, but when you reside in the same division as the Patriots, you earn Wild Card spots every year. Rex Ryan can hate me now and yell at me.

 Playoff teams and seeds
1.Chargers (13-3)
2. Patriots (12-4)
3. Steelers (11-5)
4. Texans (10-6)
5. Ravens (10-6)
6. Jets (10-6)

NOTE:
The main one during the NFL season will be my picks. I am in a few Pick 'em groups on the Interwebs and will post my picks each week (straight up) for EVERY game. Over the last couple of years I've posted about a 70 percent success rate. I plan on having that up on Wednesday or Thursday's throughout the year. Be sure to check out my Twitter or Facebook for updates to be sure when I'll have them posted.
Here's the schedule of what's to come this week:

Wednesday: Today was my NFL preview for the regular season. I'm going to make you come back and check out my Playoff preview tomorrow to see who I have winning the Super Bowl. Yeah, I'm cruel, but like the hits. You'll be back! Plus, I feel the need to pop off on why Peter King, one of my fave NFL writers is off base with his picks in the latest NFL preview issue.

Thursday: My full Chicago Bears Preview - I can't get enough of Jay Cutler or Brian Urlacher. I've got some things I'm ready to pop off on. Plus, I have to get my NFL picks in for the Kickoff game. People in Wisconsin are pumped for this game, I guess.