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Now to some breaking down of what is on tap for Sunday's game. I've reached out to a good Packers friend, Josh Golberg, who will give five keys for the Packers and I'll come back with five keys for the Bears.
1. Momentum. Nobody wants to play the hot team heading into the playoffs and no team is hotter than Green Bay. The Packers have won four straight going back to two must-win games to close out the season. They seem to be peaking at the right time. (You could argue that New Orleans/Seattle were hot teams heading in…but they played each other)
2. The running game. If you would have told me midseason that 25 carries for 66 yards by your main running back against the #1 seed in the NFC on the road would be enough to carry a dominant passing attack and earn an upset…I would have asked for whatever you were smoking. But the resurgence of the ground game with Brandon Jackson, and more recently James Starks, has kept defenses honest and allowed Aaron Rodgers to pick opponents apart. It doesn’t matter if the Bears held offenses to an average of 90 yards rushing during the regular season. They at least now have to account for somebody running the ball effectively.
3. Aaron Rodgers. There isn’t a QB that has played better in the postseason…and not just because the Patriots, Saints and Colts are all out. Rodgers is coming off of what many people are saying is the best postseason performance in history: 31 of 36 passes, 366 yards, 3 TDs, passer rating of 136.8. Ran for a 4th TD. In fact he has 10 TD passes in his first three career postseason games, an NFL record. Against Chicago this year, he’s a combined 53 for 73 with 2 TDs, 2 INTs and a combined passer rating of 91.1. Definitely mortal-like numbers. He’ll have to break that mold Sunday.
4. Dom Capers. Show me a defensive coordinator who has done more with less. Seriously. Ten players on IR. 10. That’s almost enough to form an entire defense. Starters/backups/3rd stringers. No coordinator has had to tweak things more to the constantly changing strengths and weaknesses…yet they still wound up with the 5th ranked defense when the regular season was concluded. I wouldn’t want anyone else gameplanning for an opponent.
5. The receiving corps. Possession receiver? Check (Driver). Downfield threat? Check (Jennings). Emerging threat? Check (Jones). Token white guy who seems to be forgotten about only to come up big? Check (Nelson). No defensive secondary can cover those four plus account for a tailback or a tight end. Top to bottom, Green Bay has the best receivers in the league. Their #1 or #2 might not be as good as some teams, but combine them all and they’re the best. Throw in Rodgers and you’ve got an explosive passing attack. They’ll dink-and-dunk you down the field and just when you make a mistake, they’ll make you pay for it.
Prediction: Packers 31, Bears 17
Now to the Bears keys to success Sunday.
1. Good Jay. It's tops on the list and it is the most important because how Jay Cutler goes, so goes the offense. He played in his first playoff game last week and showed he was not above the moment and had one of his best games of the season. Some of what he is able to do Sunday is not tied directly to him, as he needs the front five to make sure he is not getting the tar beat out of him. Is there any doubt to think Jay will not continue to play smart? No. He has been on point for the last two months and has limited his poor decisions. For his sake, the sack is the lesser of two evils when compared to an interception.
2. Make James Starks a nonfactor. Starks rushed for 66 yards against the Falcons, but 123 against the Eagles where he was an even bigger factor. It will not take much for him to be a factor and do all the Packers need in just planting an idea of the run, but to silence him has to be a key objective for the Bears. Making the Packers turn away from the running game on 2nd and 1 and 3rd and 1 will set the tone for the defense and make them one dimensional. That will open things up for the defensive line to pin their ears back.
3. Get pressure with the front four. Speaking of the defensive line, those front four of mainly Julius Peppers, Tommie Harris, Anthony Adams and Israel Idonoje need to establish pressure on Aaron Rodgers, but with a slight purpose. Consider this an extension of limiting the run game in containing Rodgers and not letting him use his feet to create. Keeping the pocket from moving will set things up for the line and help the secondary.
4. Create turnovers. There is no secret the Bears defense is one of the best in the league at creating opportunities for themselves. Against the Packers it seems they always find a way to force a key fumble when the Green Bay is knocking on the door and getting a key interception, even on Rodgers. If Chris Harris plays like he has been announced he will with his injury, look for the secondary to have to come up big with a great GB secondary. It's all bend but don't break and they can give up yards, if they create opportunities by hawking the ball.
5. Special teams domination. I would expect little argument from Packers backers that the Bears have an elite special teams unit compared to the Packers. In the regular season finale Devin Hester was kept rather silent, but I don't expect that to happen again. He needs to help flip field position and help the offense work a short field to scores. Even if he forces the Packers to kick the ball short or out of bounds, it would work to the Bears advantage most of the time. I do not expect Tim Mastahay to have the game he had in Week 17 where he was pretty much perfect.
Prediction: Bears 23, Packers 20 off a Robbie Gould field goal in the final minute.
On to that other playoff game going on that will determine who the winner of this game will play in the Super Bowl, I know haven't done a lot with it this week. For good reason. This is huge.
That said, I'm still leaning toward the Steelers. They have a better defense all around than the Jets and are not banged up or inexperienced like the Patriots and Colts defenses were. This will be a great game, but I'm still taking the Steelers, 21-17.
As most of you who know me know, I'm a huge fan of Twitter. I have been following the chatter all week on both sides of the aisle and figured I'd make it easy for some of you to do that this weekend. Here's a list of a select number of media members with what they have to say. Should be fun to follow this during the game Sunday. Check out the list on my Twitter page.
Now on to the Nussie Hunter portion of the broadcast. With a big game and a big blog, you have to bring out the big guns for the event. That leads us to the one and only Megan Fox, who is in a new ad campaign in for Armani. She looks as good as ever. You can see more pics, here.
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