With all the attention this week on Jay Cutler following an all-around awful performance in New Orleans, it's hard to come back to earth a little bit and get ready for the Green Bay Packers. Yes, you know, the (Gulp!) Super Bowl Champions (I hate saying that) and Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers.
That's what has me thinking this game, for the Bears to be successful and have a shot at victory, the defense led by Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Julius Peppers, needs to step up and deliver a performance similar to what they turned in last season. With both teams being very similar to last year's squads - they each have 17 of 22 starters back from last year - I'd expect something similar to last year.
But, Aaron, the Packers won two of three meetings with the Bears last season, do you want the same performance as last season? The Packers scored 17, 10 and 21 points in three games against the Bears defense last season. Tell me the Lovie Smith version of the Tampa-2 doesn't give the Packers fits and frustrate the bejesus out of them and I'll tell you to get your eyes examined. There's just something about the Bears defense that keeps these games close.
The one thing that might make this game slightly different from last season is the fact that Rodgers is absolutely ripping defenses to shreds through the first two weeks of the season. With the Bears situation at both safety spots up in the air heading into the weekend, Rodgers could have another one of those games. But, if history is accurate - and with the number of guys back from last year it should give us a good jumping off point - the Packers will not be able to run very effectively against the Bears' seven-man front. The Packers have always been a pass-first team under Mike McCarthy anyhow, so I don't see it being a big concern.
You have to expect Rodgers to take his shots downfield and find ways to get at the inexperience (at least within the Cover 2) from Brandon Merriweather and Craig Steltz, who has seen some, but not significant time in the secondary.
Of course, none of who's back there really matters if Julius Peppers has another one of the games he did when the teams played in Week 3 of last season on MNF. I'd expect him to move around on the line and bounce between the left and right ends throughout the game in hopes of exposing something and keeping the Packers guessing where to send help.
For Cutler and the Bears offense, they'll have to find a way to cope without Gabe Carimi, who is expected to miss "several weeks" with his knee injury. If things were shaky with him, imagine how it will be without him. The allure is there for this Bears offense to test the Packers pass defense, too. It has been torched in the first two games, as has the entire unit really with a pass rush, namely Clay Matthews, that has little bite to this point in the young season.
So do the Bears exploit the injury of Nick Collins in any way? Expect Mike Martz to take some shots, but they'll have to be quick. And with Johnny Knox and Devin Hester both having their druthers to this point of the season, I'm not sure it will mean much. The duo has been thrown to 34 times, but has a combined eight catches in two games. Roy Williams joins the rivalry and could have a shot at making plays down the field and might be on his own in doing so, if he's able to get healthy after missing last week's game.
Then there's Matt Forte. Is there anything he can't do? You have to expect him to be a factor in the passing game, but you'd also have to think Martz is going to make a point to run more with him this week, too, after Lovie made a point in the media to say he was going to get the pass-run ratio closer to 50-50. It will help having Marion Barber available for the first time this season and his ability to punish defenses could be the spark the Bears need on the ground to get something going and help play keepaway from the Packers offense.
The prediction: OK, here's how I see it shaking out. The Bears are at home in this one and will be ready to make big changes after losing the last two meetings last season. Whether they're big or not remains to be seen, but we'll notice them. If the defense can make the Packers work their way down the field and not give up the big play, they could force Rodgers into his first interception of the season and must find a way to create turnovers in general. That should put the offense in a good spot to produce points.
If that offense can get on track, finding an answer to the Packers blitzes with quick hits to Matt Spaeth and Forte and are allowed to run after the catch, the offense will have its desired success. Martz has told the offense the Packers play a lot of man defensively, so to break it down even more, they have to win those one-on-one battles 100 percent of the time.
For the defense, get a turnover or two and get pressure with those front four and they'll be in good shape. It's the gameplan every week, but against this offense is paramount. They always seem to give the Packers fits and will find a way to do it again on Sunday.
The Score: This one will be tight and McCarthy still hasn't shaken that "can't win the close one" tag and that's why I have the Bears winning a 20-17 tight one. As good as Gould!
Just as I did with the NFC Championship game, I'm going to put the Twitter widget to work here. Seemed to put all the info in one central location and made it fun to see what was going on from both perspectives.
And now to the NFL Picks for Week 3. Last week I went 13-3 which puts me at 23-9 for the season. That's a 72 percent success rate which is good enough to put me in the top 4,841 in the world on ESPN.com. But enough bragging. On to this week's prognosis. Winners, as always, in bold.
Patriots at Bills
49ers at Bengals
Dolphins at Browns
Broncos at Titans
Lions at Vikings
Texans at Saints
Giants at Eagles
Jaguars at Panthers
Chiefs at Chargers
Jets at Raiders
Ravens at Rams
Falcons at Buccaneers
Packers at Bears
Cardinals at Seahawks
Steelers at Colts
Redskins at Cowboys
So that's my Bears-Packers score prediction. What is yours? Comment below and tell me one thing that will determine things beyond your score!
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