The time has finally come! It's opening week of the NFL season, so I'm going to shift the blog a bit this week in that direction to get things kicked off. I'll introduce a couple staples along the way I'll try to have posted each week so you'll be sure to check in and see what I'm thinking on some things.
In past year's I've broken down each division. This year, like last season, I'm thinking that is just too much work for something no one really reads. I, basically just want to go on record with my NFL picks so people can come back to them later in the season.
Well, here we go.
First, the NFC
North: This kind of spoils my Bears preview in a couple days, but I can't see the Packers losing the division this season. As much of a Bears fan as I am I read a lot about the team I live two hours from and know what they're doing. Their only weakness is going to be that O-line again, just as it was last year. I didn't watch a second of preseason and know there were hiccups of epic proportions at times. Aaron Rodgers is too good to let it drag him down and that defense flies around the field and causes chaos unlike anything else in the league. They'll be a force and will be 12-4 this season. That will not be without a fight from my Bears, who I have earning a Wild Card spot this season. Sorry, one of my favorite publications has the Lions making the playoffs which I cannot disagree with more. I know you know football, but you have to walk before you can run. Donovan McNabb in Minnesota will have its ups and downs and that defense is awful. So my Bears find a way and make the dance.
East: Is anyone on the planet not picking the Eagles to win this division? Well, I'm right there, with them. All the publications are jumping on Michael Vick for MVP. I'm not there yet, as he was very pedestrian towards the end of last season (starting with the Bears game). But he'll be better this season with the big money in his back pocket and all of their weapons around him are just too good. Oh, and the moves they made with their defense have them in a very good spot too. Tight ends and running backs are going to be the only guys getting passes when you play that D. That's why I have them going 11-5 this season.
West: Last year the Seahawks made the playoffs with a 7-9 record and knocked off the defending champs in the Wild Card round. Sam Bradford will continue to be the savior in St. Louis and the Rams will win this division as he makes huge strides toward being one of the premiere passers in this league as I see them going 9-7 this season. Not great, but a step in the right direction for a team that continues to get better on both sides of the ball.
South: This might be the best division in the NFC and even the league this season and could come down to a three-horse race. But really, it's a two-team race with New Orleans and Atlanta holding the key to the division title. The Saints defense was gashed last season at times and hasn't gotten any better. In fact, they've probably gotten worse, despite what you read in SI saying otherwise, I disagree. On offense, yes Drew Brees is a beast, but naming Olin Kruetz as a key offensive line acquistion shows it wasn't that great of a free agent periord. He's a great leader, but was slightly above average, at best over the last couple seasons. I don't see their line and running game being that much of a consistent factor this season, opening the door for the Falcons to repeat as division champs. That playoff loss last season opened their eyes and they will be focused. For the Bucs, they have a shot at helping the South sweep the Wild Card spots in the playoffs if they can continue to build on last season. I really like their quarterback Josh Freeman. Speaking of QBs, it's going to be a rough year again in Carolina for Cam Newton. It was a rough rookie year for Peyton Manning, too, so don't read too much into it. I'm not sold on him being great, but I'm not sold on him being awful, either. We'll have to see.
Wild Cards: Bears (10-6)- They key will be how will Roy Williams steps up, or allows Johnny Knox to take over the No. 1 receiver position. That, of course, means the offensive line has to give Jay enough time to throw the ball. I'll have more on them tomorrow, so I won't get too deep into it now.
Saints (10-6)- Drew Brees is too good to let this team miss the playoffs. This year will be all about the shootouts if they want to string wins together.
Playoff teams and seeds
1. Packers (12-4)
2. Eagles (11-5)
3. Falcons (10-6)
4. Rams (9-7)
5. Bears (10-6)
6. Saints (10-6)
AFC
North: This division comes down to the Steelers or the Ravens. Which will it be? The Steelers just seem to get it done in those big games and it's all because of Ben Roethlisberger. I like Joe Flacco, but Big Ben is just on a diffeent level that performs in those big games. He gets it done in those games and the Steelers are winning this division. The Bengals and Browns? Well, the stripes in Cinncy won't be a factor and the Browns will show flashes, but can't compete with Steel City or B-More. Give me the Steelers winning this division with an 11-5 mark and the Ravens close behind in a Wild Card spot.
South: When was the last time the Colts weren't a lock to win this divison? It's been forever. Peyton Manning's neck and lack of arm strength have everyone, including me question who will win the division this season. I worked it by process of elimination. The Jaguars just cut David Garrard and are going with a rookie this season under center. Something tells me Jack Del Rio won't be around after this season. Too many headaches, sorry Jags fans, the blackouts will be the beginnings of your worries. In Tennessee there's a coach not named Jeff Fischer on the sidelines and that doesn't sit well with me. Plus, Matt Hasselback is in town with a rookie itching to get in the game. Things go south, and they will, look for this thing to go even more out of control. That leaves Houston. They have a premiere wide receiver in Andre Johnson, what could be a top-tier running back in Arian Foster and a QB in Matt Schaub that could make this offense very dangerous. The question mark lies on defense where Wade Phillips has made Mario Williams an outside linebacker in installing his 3-4 defense. Not a big deal, but you have to expect some hiccups along the way. This all comes down to how long Peyton is out for and how well he plays, but I might be on board with everyone else in thinking if Houston is finally going to make the playoffs and have its first winning season in franchise history, this is the year.
East: Another year and another Patriots division title? Yep. And this year could be another one of those great years for the Pats, who welcome Chad Ochocinco into the fold and will have him determined the way Randy Moss was when he first got to Boston. Look for that defense to get a little better this year, too, and be a force that will have Bill Bellichek's boys 11-5 this season. The Jets will be right in the mix, as well, but after missing out on getting a shutdown corner to compliment Darelle Revis on the other side, this secondary might be a little soft (not awful, just with a hole or two) that good quarterbacks will find ways to exploit. The Bills will make vast improvements this season and the Dolphins will be solid, too, but I don't see them being on the level of the Jets and Pats.
West: The Chargers had the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense last season and missed the playoffs because their special teams were absolutely horrendous at times. That won't happen again, even with Norv Turner leading the way, as this team will go 13-3. I know Philip Rivers is getting a lot of MVP talks and he deserves it with the year he had last year with his best receiver a no-show until November. Their closest run should come from the Broncos and Kyle Orton. I just like John Fox and his style and think he'll have this team in a position to win. Why no Chiefs in the hunt? Their starters lost to the Packers backups in the preseason finale. They've looked absolutely awful in preseason and will take a couple steps back this year. Just hand the ball off to Thomas Jones
Wild Cards: Ravens (10-6) This team is solid, but comes up short in the regular season against the Steelers. That's the difference between the division champs.
Jets (10-6) There is little to not like about this team, but when you reside in the same division as the Patriots, you earn Wild Card spots every year. Rex Ryan can hate me now and yell at me.
Playoff teams and seeds
1.Chargers (13-3)
2. Patriots (12-4)
3. Steelers (11-5)
4. Texans (10-6)
5. Ravens (10-6)
6. Jets (10-6)
NOTE:
The main one during the NFL season will be my picks. I am in a few Pick 'em groups on the Interwebs and will post my picks each week (straight up) for EVERY game. Over the last couple of years I've posted about a 70 percent success rate. I plan on having that up on Wednesday or Thursday's throughout the year. Be sure to check out my Twitter or Facebook for updates to be sure when I'll have them posted.
Here's the schedule of what's to come this week:
Wednesday: Today was my NFL preview for the regular season. I'm going to make you come back and check out my Playoff preview tomorrow to see who I have winning the Super Bowl. Yeah, I'm cruel, but like the hits. You'll be back! Plus, I feel the need to pop off on why Peter King, one of my fave NFL writers is off base with his picks in the latest NFL preview issue.
Thursday: My full Chicago Bears Preview - I can't get enough of Jay Cutler or Brian Urlacher. I've got some things I'm ready to pop off on. Plus, I have to get my NFL picks in for the Kickoff game. People in Wisconsin are pumped for this game, I guess.
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