If you know me, you know I'm usually one of the most optimistic and positive people you will meet. I'm that way with the Brewers and in the rest of my life. The recent turn of events with the Bears has the realist coming out of me and seeing the possibility of the Bears earning an NFC Wildcard spot fading fast.
I am the same person that said after the Jay Cutler injury Caleb Hanie could lead the team to three wins in six games and get the team into the playoffs and hand things back over to Cutler to lead a magical playoff run. But with Matt Forte now down for 2-3 weeks (Lovie Smith said he expects him back before the end of the regular season in his Monday presser), the possibility of the Bears winning three of their final four games seems like a bit of a reach right now with their second biggest offensive weapon on the sideline.
With one or the other of the Cutler/Forte combo on the sideline the Bears could win for a short period of time. I actually think Cutler could sustain a season without Forte playing like he had during the team's five-game winning streak, but is made vastly better by the production of Forte on the ground (he has 997 yards on the season) and as a safety valve passing option out of the backfield. That said, the offense should have leaned on Forte and Marion Barber more over the last two weeks, but instead Mike Martz chose to stay pass happy.
Hanie has six interceptions after two games as a starter (his third Sunday was on the last play of the game) and aside from one drive which ended on a drop by Roy Williams that turned into his second INT, he could not move the ball. That proof lies in the 11 third downs that were not converted by the Hanie-led offense and the man calling the plays, Martz.
Minus the remaining best threat the offense has, Hanie will have no choice but to put the ball in the air, which scares the hell out of me. There is, however, a little hope in the work Barber and Kahlil Bell did in carrying the ball after Forte went down, combining for 77 yards on 18 carries. They were effective at times and broke off some solid runs. But you give a team a chance to scheme for them during the week and know that Hanie is not much of a threat with this offensive line and things look pretty meek going forward in these final four games. Just like the story in the Chicago Tribune today, the offense is pretty weak right now.
The formula for beating the Bears is now very simple. Keep the ball away from Devin Hester in the kicking game and wear down the defense with a run game that sustains long scoring drives and get after the quarterback and force Hanie to make quick decisions. Wait, that sounds like the formula John Fox and the Denver Broncos have used with Tim Tebow to win five straight games. Yeah, it's not going to get any easier going forward.
Looking at these final four games against the Broncos, Seahawks, Packers and Vikings, only one is at home (Seattle). I'd be happy now with a 2-2 finish. The Bears defense does match up well against the Broncos in trying to stop Tebow, but he only ran the ball 10 times this week and continues to get better throwing the ball and being more selective on running the read option. With an offense that generated just three points the defense has little room for error and I'm not sure how long they can sustain things without scoring points themselves. This could be one the Bears steal, but the Broncos are rolling right now.
It's hard to find many positives in the Bears final four games right now. Yes, every other NFC Wild Card team did lose yesterday keeping them in the No. 5 spot in the playoff hunt, but they all can't lose these final four weeks and you'd hate to have it end that way anyhow. It's going to be tough to watch down the stretch. I can only wish the Bears prove me wrong.
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