Which Brewers starting pitcher has most to prove in 2012?

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With Monday being the first official workout for Brewers pitchers and catchers at Maryvale Baseball Park in Phoenix, it's time to start thinking baseball. More specifically, I really wanted to take a closer look at the starting pitchers on the Brewers staff in this post. As I talked in a post last month, all five starters return from last season. Usually with everyone back complacency could be a factor in performance this season. But with this group, all five have something to prove. With the status of Ryan Braun up in the air, the team will lean on the pitching staff to carry them through the time he is out.

We'll start with the man that proved he was the ace last season, Yovani Gallardo (Baseball reference stats). He was the man that the team turned to in the playoffs to get big wins and throughout the regular season was a horse, winning a career high 17 games and was the first Brewers pitcher to strike out 200 batters in three consecutive seasons in team history. His 3.52 ERA was a career high for a full season. Most importantly, he walked just 59 batters, or just 2.6 per nine innings. That's a full one batter less than his previous best set in 2010. The big number for Gallardo, and this is what he has to prove is the 207 innings he threw last season, plus the 26 innings he threw in 12 days in the playoffs.. That's 44 1/3 innings more than his previous high for a season. Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci has come up with the "Verducci Effect" which tracks the jumps in innings a pitcher makes from year to year. Anything over 30 for a 25-and-under hurler has a good chance of resulting in injury or regression the following season. So, he's got that and a season to show that he is in fact the true ace of the staff this season.

After Gallardo, Zack Greinke proved himself last year, after getting the ire of fans with his basketball injury during spring training. After missing all of Spring Training Greinke took only three starts in the minors before he made his Brewers debut May 4. While the Brewers played well behind him when he took the mound, his performances were lackluster at times. The Brewers went 10-5 in his first 15 starts (he went 7-4), but his 4.84 ERA was not Greinke-like (Game logs). His strikeouts were there, but he'd get wreckless at times. The second half of the season was where Greinke turned the corner and showed why he has a Cy Young award in his trophy case. From July 27 on, Greinke was 9-2, leading the Brewers to an 11-2 record during that stretch. He posted a 2.77 ERA, struck out 87 while walking just 27 (Game Logs). Those were the numbers fans were expecting out of the gate. This season, he's got to make it through the spring and then start the season with the same effort he finished last season with. If he does that, he will push Gallardo and have a shot to win an NL Cy Young. Oh, and how can I forget he is a free agent after this season. So he's auditioning for a possible contract. Now, the Brewers are rumored to want a deal with him and it sounds like something he would welcome. We shall see how that pans out.

Shaun Marcum is the middle man in the starting rotation and could take the cake as the most interesting and maybe the one with the most to prove. I can't remember a guy having a regular season like him and then tanking that bad. He pitched just 9.2 postseason innings and allowed 17 hits and 16 runs, all earned, during that time. Yeah, it was bad. That makes what he did during the regular season seem out of place. It was rather stellar. He went 13-7 and posted a 3.54 ERA which was .02 behind Gallardo as the best of the staff (Game Logs). His 200.2 innings were a career high. But, when it comes down to it, the awful outings he had in Phoenix in the NLDS and the two outings in the NLCS against the Cardinals are the black eye on his 2011 season. Like it or not, that's how it is. Add to the fact that he's also a free agent adds to the mix where other teams will be keeping an eye on him. When it comes to the Brewers signing him, I really only see them signing either he or Greinke. Not both.

Randy Wolf was as consistent a No. 4 starter last season as there was in the Majors. He hadhttp://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2149688284499501924#editor/target=post;postID=7026812923272109016 the most innings during the regular season with 212.1 innings pitched and his 3.69 ERA is the fourth lowest of his 12-year Major League career. He struck out 134 hitters while walking 66, but allowed just 214 hits for the regular season (Game Logs). Those numbers aren't jump-off-the-page great, but they are pretty good. During the Brewers run last season when they took over the NL Central, Wolf was the focal point. He won five straight decisions in late July into early August. He was the tough-luck loser last season at times, losing five games on the season when he allowed three runs or less. What does Wolf have to prove? He too is a free agent after this season. It seems unlikely the team will resign him as he will be 35 this season. Last season he was the pitcher they wanted when they signed him prior to the 2009 season.

Chris Narveson is back to close out the rotation and after listening to a discussion on ESPN Radio in Milwaukee Monday, one would think he would be the guy that could become complacent. But Drew Olson doesn't see that happening with him. I say he has something to prove because the pitching staff for 2013 is going to be retooled and if he wants to be a part of it and move up from the No. 5 slot, he'll have to work at it. At one point in 2011 Narveson was 2-4 through May with a 4.68 ERA. Once the calendar turned to June, Narvey turned it on. He went 9-4 the rest of the way with a 4.32 ERA (Game Logs). That's about what you would want out of your No. 5 guy.

So, after all that, it seems pretty clear who the guy with the most to prove is. That's Marcum. The postseason can define guys. If there were ever a reason people, or fans, can point to and say "That's why the team didn't go to the World Series," it's him. The biggest way to make us as fans forget about that is to have the same regular season he had last year. General Managers across the Majors will also have to say he is the most interesting because he was an innings hog last year. It was a personal high for him, but it showed the elbow had healed after his Tommy John Surgery. If he backs that up again and something can't be worked out to stay in Milwaukee, a big deal awaits him next season.

What do you think? Comment and let me know!