Previewing the Brewers vs. D-Backs NLDS

It's finally here! What us as Brewers fans figured would be on the horizon at the start of September is now upon us with the National League Divisional Series opening Saturday at Miller Park against the Arizona Diamondbacks. It's a series, to be honest that is not an easy one for the Brewers, but definitely not one that are an underdog in, either.

As the Brewers learned in 2008, having an offense may be important, but winning a playoff series comes down to pitching. Both teams have named their Game 1 starters with Yovani Gallardo (17-10, 3.52 ERA), the man who started Opening Day, going for the Brewers and Ian Kennedy, who won 21 games (with a 2.88 ERA) during the season for the Diamondbacks. That's basically both aces going for Brewers manager Ron Roenicke and D-Backs skipper Kirk Gibson.

Winning Game 1 is crucial for both teams as the winner of that game gets a great advantage in this best-of-five series. You'd have to expect both guys to go deep into the game and keep that one close with things coming down to defense and clutch hitting. That's what scares me about the Brewers. There have been times this season where they just shut down with runners in scoring position and times when their defense has been shotty, at best. But they are at home and they did win 57 games there during the regular season which makes me believe they will be ready to click on all cylinders to start the series off.

If both pitchers are on their game it may take just a couple mistakes to turn the game. That's why I think the Brewers might have the edge with their offense because they can do so much with those mistakes, blasting them over the fence at Miller Park. That isn't just going on potential. In recent weeks, especially over the last week which saw them go 5-1 to close the season at Miller Park, the Brewers have been bashing home runs.
With both teams having solid bullpens with closers on both sides having over 45 saves apiece, that's what it could come down to.

Looking beyond to Game 2, the Brewers have a decision to make with Zack Greinke, but I'd lean toward him starting in Game 3 with either Shaun Marcum or Randy Wolf getting the nod in Game 2. Arizona has named starters for Games 2 and 3 with Tim Hudson (16-12, 3.49 ERA) going in Game 2 and Joe Saunders (12-12, 3.69 ERA) getting the nod in Game 4.

As a Brewers fan, part of me thinks this series will probably go four games with the Diamondbacks taking Game 2 and the Brewers pulling it together to shut down the Diamondbacks and win their first playoff series since the 1982 American League Championship Series. If it does go to a Game 5, the Brewers would most certainly tab Gallardo to get the start at home in front of what should be a rocking Miller Park. Having home field is so important to this team, rolling him out there with the home field would be what puts the Brew Crew over the top.


In case you were wondering, yes I will be in attendance for both games from the perch in section 223, row 6. A big shout out to those who I'll be spending my weekend with including @RJO25, @jessgaler and @aehlen. For the latter two, that is their first Wilber's Way shout out. Hope to see you at the tailgate to prepare for this great weekend of games! Giddy up!



Usually I'd do my Bears and NFL weekend preview in this part, but I haven't had a Brewers post in a bit and couldn't not do one heading into the weekend. That said, I still have my NFL picks and an abbreviated Bears preview.

Cam Newton, Greg Olsen, Ron "Chico" Rivera and the Panthers come to Soldier Field this weekend in a game that, honestly has me a bit worried. The Bears have to be favorites in this one, but Newton has been a highlight film through the first three weeks of the season and could post a threat against a weak Bears secondary. I still like the Bears' front four and their ability to get after Cam in the pocket and make Newton pass the ball downfield and field them, but from what we've seen from him, he can chuck it around the field.
That turns the attention back to the Bears defense. Fortunately for Mike Martz, the Panthers defense is nowhere close to the Packers defense and should make him look a little better this week. The key is simple, PUT THE BALL IN MATT FORTE'S HANDS!
Score prediction: Bears 24, Panthers 20.

Here's the rest of the picks. Last week I had another 10-6 week to push my record for the season to 33-15. Winners, as always, are in bold.
Bills at Bengals
Panthers at Bears
Titans at Browns
Lions at Cowboys
Vikings at Chiefs
Redskins at Rams
Saints at Jaguars
49ers at Eagles
Steelers at Texans
Falcons at Seahawks
Giants at Cardinals
Broncos at Packers
Patriots at Raiders
Dolphins at Chargers
Jets at Ravens
Colts at Buccaneers

Offense to blame for Bears lack of success against Packers

Jay Cutler and the Bears offense doesn't have an identity three weeks into the season and it's a problem.

After an offseason which pointed to an offense moving toward becoming more run oriented, the Chicago Bears have ran the ball and after running the ball just 12 times in each of the last two games, one has to wonder where that mindset has gone. It's a bigger question when the best player without argument on offense is the running back, Matt Forte. Forte has even been called the best player on the offense by Mike Martz, the guy calling the plays as the offensive coordinator, and it has to make the "whispers" that were surrounding his future in Chicago a lot more audible.

I normally don't get on my soapbox and say one guy either needs to change or go, but this might be the time to do so with Martz. Last season it took a stern talking to from Lovie Smith to focus more on the running game, the team took off and won eight straight en route to an NFC North title.

When a guy like Forte is responsible for over 50 percent of the offensive yardage through two weeks of the season, you know he's important and a guy the quarterback turns to in a tight spot. But to let him pretty much vanish against the Packers when it was needed doesn't make sense. Now, I get the Packers may have had a linebacker shadowing Forte when he released out of the backfield which wouldn't have given him a chance to get many yards, they are not going to do that every time and even when they do, he's a player that can create on his own in space, so you have to give him a couple chances. Especially when the running game isn't working. Essentially, those dump offs would work as an extension of the run game to give him a chance to contribute.

As for the loss to the Packers and not running, they fell behind by quite a bit and were forced to be more pass happy, which I'm not upset with, but for Forte to not be thrown to as much as he was is a problem to me. Especially when the ball was thrown down field it was either over thrown or dropped by a receiver. I don't fault Cutler for some of those overthrows, as the receiver fell down on a couple of them. The drops, however, are inexcusable but an issue all their own.

Sticking to Martz and the gameplan, with the time Jay had to throw in the first half, there were still too many three and outs. Part of that has to fall on Jay for not executing, but let's be honest, he wasn't that bad. I just don't see him and Martz seeing eye to eye on this thing. It's very clear in his quote tonight in the Chicago Tribune when he says "Until we get more consistent, I guess we don't (have an identity as an offense)."

The mistaken identity has something to do with the interceptions from Jay. Last year he threw 11 interceptions on passes that were intended for Johnny Knox. That leads one to believe he wasn't where he was supposed to be and/or he didn't fight for the ball. Well, Sunday Roy Williams was targeted four times and a whopping two of those times the pass was intercepted. I'd say there is some miscommunication there. Cutler has said it himself in the postgame, they need to get their timing better. If Roy is not on the field in the Red zone, he shouldn't be on the team. Plain and simple. 

One other thing I need to call Martz out on is his trick plays. They don't work. Throw them out of the playbook. Especially the ones involving the Wildcat formation. I like the idea of running the play and giving Forte a chance to run with it more than I actually like the play. It's just going to expose some other part of the offense that doesn't work. (See Devin Hester jumping the start)

Whatever the relationship is between Cutler and Martz, it's still not working right. The job of the coaching staff is to put the players in the best position to win games and right now, that's not happening on the offensive side of the ball. Whether it be Cutler, Williams, Forte or Knox, something isn't right and needs to get hashed out and soon, if they want to stay in this race with Detroit and Green Bay.

Matt Forte ranks 24th in the NFL in carries through three weeks. He needs to get more rushes for the Bears offense to have its identity.