Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Who starts Opening Day on mound for Brewers?

On the day Opening Day tickets were made available for those who won the ticket lottery (this writer was one of them!) it's time to seriously start getting ready for the big day, which is just 34 days away.

Manager Ron Roenicke has already been asked as to who will get the ball for the Brewers on that day and, as per usual, he is not making it public his throughts on who he will tap to start things off for the 2014 season against the Braves at Miller Park.

What he has mentioned is some clue that he has looked at the schedule and noted the Brewers will be part of three home openers in the first week of the season. First, in Milwaukee, on the actual Opening Day. Second, in Boston, when the Red Sox get their World Series rings on the first weekend of the season, and third, in Philadelphia the following Monday against the Phillies. 

That could play a part in things, as Roenicke is on record as saying that Friday "ring day" with the Red Sox at Fenway "is a big game." 

History tells us he is not one to skip guys in the rotation, even with off days between the Brewers Wednesday finale with the Braves and Friday's tilt in Fenway. 

It has to be between three guys for the Opening Day nod and it would set up the rest of the first 10 days of the season. Yovani Gallardo has started the last four openers, but he is coming off what many consider to be a rough year. It wasn't a bad year for him (minus the DUI which put a black eye on his season), but he didn't take the step forward many expected he would. 

Kyle Lohse pushed through a rough open of the season to be the best Brewers pitcher for all of 2013. He was the legit ace of the staff last year once he got dialed in. Many expect him to do the same this season.

Matt Garza was the big free-agent acquisition and was right in line with Lohse while a member of the Cubs last season. After he got traded to the Rangers and suffered an injury he was never the same the rest of the season. He could be a 1a to Lohse's ace-caliber stuff this season.

So who does Roenicke go with? It has to be Lohse for me and here's why. If Roenicke does not skip the guys at the back end of the rotation with the Thursday off day that first week of the season, the No. 1 will pitch the Sunday game in Boston with his No. 2 start of the season. The No. 2 guy would then pitch the opener in Philly the next day and the No. 3 would get an extra day off and start Game 2 of the series against the Phillies. With that in mind, I go Lohse, Garza, Gallardo out of the box. It lines the ducks up when you need them most and puts Gallardo in the best position to succeed.

That does leave out the Friday Opener in Boston. Does Roenicke trust Wily Peralta or Marco Estrada to start that game? The Sox will be throwing their No. 4 that day, too, so it won't be that big of a deal. 

What is a big deal is the start of the Brewers season. After these three Opening Days, the Brewers then play 21 of 24 games against teams from the NL Central. they can ill afford to get off to starts like they have seemingly every year Roenicke has been the manager.

Friday, February 7, 2014

Gomez fits perfect as Brewers leadoff hitter


With players starting to arrive in Maryvale for Spring Training, it's time to start looking at the Brewers lineup. I've been giving it some thought and it would appear every spot seems to be locked up except the top two spots and the discussion is between Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura.

Both had breakout years last year in making the All-Star team and with a healthy roster this year, could be the cogs that push the Brewers into playoff contention. But who hits where?

Norichika Aoki hit leadoff most of last season with Segura hitting second and Gomez hitting third with Ryan Braun suspended. So Segura has the recent history of hitting second and he fits the position with his average and speed.

Gomez has hit leadoff before and has a .238 career batting average. That's not a good average for that spot, but that was pre-2012 when he put everything together and turned the corner. Last year he had career highs wth a .284/.338/.506 slash line. Those are numbers that would fit great at the top of the Brewers lineup. 

His 77 stolen bases the last two season would also fit nicely at the top and are part of what helped him finish ninth in NL MVP voting last season. He has shown the ability to be able to do the little things you would think of with the stereo typical leadoff hitter, as well as show the power that has made him a threat anywhere in the lineup.

Segura has spent the vast majority of his MLB career in the No. 2 slot and has shined there. The 23-year-old had 44 stolen bases to lead the NL last year. He hit leadoff in one game in his career, so there is no history to look at there. 

The "old" ways of doing things with the stereotypical hitters in the No. 1 and No. 2 slots go out with the window with this team. It would be about building as much of a cluster as possible with guys. Of course Braun will remain in his third spot, Aramis Ramiez hits fourth and Jonathan Lucroy would follow him in the fifth slot. With those spots set, it would make sense to put guys at the top of the order who can cause chaos on the basepaths and put pressure on pitching to not only get the hitter out, but keep runners in check. 

Gomez has gotten worlds better at taking pitches and waiting for his pitch. Three years ago, Ron Roenicke would not dare put him in the top half of the lineup, but now he makes the most sense at the leadoff spot. With Segura right behind him, those are two hitters in front of the big boppers who can take bases and help manufacture runs when needed. 

In the future Segura could be the guy who hits leadoff, but right now, he is best suited for the No. 2 spot behind Gomez.


Saturday, February 1, 2014

Top five Brewers storylines entering spring training


As the calendar turns to February today, it's serious time to start thinking about Spring Training. The Brewers don't report until February 15, but things are already building as to five key storylines to follow when the Brew Crew gets into Marvale Baseball Park outside Phoenix.

Topping the list of what to watch for is Ryan Braun. Simply, how will he respond to his lowest year as a pro and probably person? On top of the suspension that forced him to miss the final 65 games of the 2013 season, Braun battled injuries and missed almost 40 more games. As I wrote last month, it will be interesting to see how Braun responds to being back this season. Any offense the team missed last season can be addressed with a healthy Braun in the middle of the lineup. Things are going to get dicey on the road this season when opposing fans let Braun hear it.

Are the Brewers asking Braun to deliver MVP caliber numbers? Simply, no. They are just looking for production in line with the back of his baseball card. That would be in the area of about a .312 batting average with 36 home runs and 112 RBI.

Braun won't need to do too much if the first base position, No. 2 on my list of Brewers storylines to watch, delivers more than it did in 2013. First, the Mark Reynolds signing, then the return of Lyle Overbay, have shown that the organization realizes it's a need, but doesn't mean it will be a shining star this season. 

The team was banking on Corey Hart sticking around, and his absence will create a mix and match solution for the short term 

The third story to watch is the Rickie Weeks riddle. What will the Brewers do with him in spring training. These things have a way of working themselves out, but the Brewers have basically hinted they plan to trade Weeks and start with the season with Scooter Gennett at second base. An $11 million guy in a platoon seems a bit much for the Brewers to handle and they would probably like to pawn off some of that salary, but would need to open up the spot fo Gennett, if he delivers in Spring Training, too. 

Pitching seems to always be a need no matter the team and the signing of Matt Garza makes it less of one for the Brewers. The bullpen, however, does have plenty of unanswered questions. Most of those revolve around roles for those who will spend their time in front of Friday's Front Row Sports Grill at Miller Park. Jim Henderson is slated to start the season as closer, but the signing of Garza has bumped Tyler Thornburg to the bullpen as a possible set up man, along with the newly acquired Will Smith from the Royals in the Nori Aoki trade. Brandon Kintzler's name has been mentioned as a setup man, as he came through in that role at the end of last season. Rob Wooten saw time and shined last year, as well, so he should be back. Beyond those names, things are open for discussion. Do the Brewers take a look at Francisco Rodriguez once again (He is available)? Does a non-roster invitee like Zach Duke make the team?

How that plays out will likely decide the No. 5 storyline of the spring. What does the future hold for manager Ron Roenicke in Milwaukee? As I wrote this week, whispers are circling that if things don't end well this season for the Crew, Running Ron, the Brewers could part ways with him. Now I don't see that happening, barring a complete collapse, but that won't stop people from talking. Roenicke has shown at times he thinks way outside the box with his stealing of bases and bunt calls from guys who should not give up an at-bat, but those are marginal things. As a whole, he has not lost the clubhouse at all in his time here. The last two seasons, the team could have cashed out on the season and they came back to finish strong. That's a sign of something that should mean he sticks around for at least another year.

A couple others worth mentioning that just missed the list...

How do Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez follow up their breakout 2013 seasons?

Can Aramis Ramirez avoid a major injury this season and be a factor at the plate?

Will Jim Henderson, who had not closed Major League games before, be able to back up his 2013?

Can Kris Davis make it as an every day left fielder?

How will Ryan Braun fare in right field?

Who will hit leadoff?



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