Bears must focus on quieting Rodgers to win in Week 3

With all the attention this week on Jay Cutler following an all-around awful performance in New Orleans, it's hard to come back to earth a little bit and get ready for the Green Bay Packers. Yes, you know, the (Gulp!) Super Bowl Champions (I hate saying that) and Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers.

That's what has me thinking this game, for the Bears to be successful and have a shot at victory, the defense led by Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Julius Peppers, needs to step up and deliver a performance similar to what they turned in last season. With both teams being very similar to last year's squads - they each have 17 of 22 starters back from last year - I'd expect something similar to last year.

But, Aaron, the Packers won two of three meetings with the Bears last season, do you want the same performance as last season? The Packers scored 17, 10 and 21 points in three games against the Bears defense last season. Tell me the Lovie Smith version of the Tampa-2 doesn't give the Packers fits and frustrate the bejesus out of them and I'll tell you to get your eyes examined. There's just something about the Bears defense that keeps these games close.

The one thing that might make this game slightly different from last season is the fact that Rodgers is absolutely ripping defenses to shreds through the first two weeks of the season. With the Bears situation at both safety spots up in the air heading into the weekend, Rodgers could have another one of those games. But, if history is accurate - and with the number of guys back from last year it should give us a good jumping off point - the Packers will not be able to run very effectively against the Bears' seven-man front. The Packers have always been a pass-first team under Mike McCarthy anyhow, so I don't see it being a big concern.

You have to expect Rodgers to take his shots downfield and find ways to get at the inexperience (at least within the Cover 2) from Brandon Merriweather and Craig Steltz, who has seen some, but not significant time in the secondary.

Of course, none of who's back there really matters if Julius Peppers has another one of the games he did when the teams played in Week 3 of last season on MNF. I'd expect him to move around on the line and bounce between the left and right ends throughout the game in hopes of exposing something and keeping the Packers guessing where to send help.

For Cutler and the Bears offense, they'll have to find a way to cope without Gabe Carimi, who is expected to miss "several weeks" with his knee injury. If things were shaky with him, imagine how it will be without him. The allure is there for this Bears offense to test the Packers pass defense, too. It has been torched in the first two games, as has the entire unit really with a pass rush, namely Clay Matthews, that has little bite to this point in the young season.

So do the Bears exploit the injury of Nick Collins in any way? Expect Mike Martz to take some shots, but they'll have to be quick. And with Johnny Knox and Devin Hester both having their druthers to this point of the season, I'm not sure it will mean much. The duo has been thrown to 34 times, but has a combined eight catches in two games. Roy Williams joins the rivalry and could have a shot at making plays down the field and might be on his own in doing so, if he's able to get healthy after missing last week's game.

Then there's Matt Forte. Is there anything he can't do? You have to expect him to be a factor in the passing game, but you'd also have to think Martz is going to make a point to run more with him this week, too, after Lovie made a point in the media to say he was going to get the pass-run ratio closer to 50-50. It will help having Marion Barber available for the first time this season and his ability to punish defenses could be the spark the Bears need on the ground to get something going and help play keepaway from the Packers offense.

The prediction: OK, here's how I see it shaking out. The Bears are at home in this one and will be ready to make big changes after losing the last two meetings last season. Whether they're big or not remains to be seen, but we'll notice them. If the defense can make the Packers work their way down the field and not give up the big play, they could force Rodgers into his first interception of the season and must find a way to create turnovers in general. That should put the offense in a good spot to produce points.
If that offense can get on track, finding an answer to the Packers blitzes with quick hits to Matt Spaeth and Forte and are allowed to run after the catch, the offense will have its desired success. Martz has told the offense the Packers  play a lot of man defensively, so to break it down even more, they have to win those one-on-one battles 100 percent of the time.
For the defense, get a turnover or two and get pressure with those front four and they'll be in good shape. It's the gameplan every week, but against this offense is paramount. They always seem to give the Packers fits and will find a way to do it again on Sunday.

The Score: This one will be tight and McCarthy still hasn't shaken that "can't win the close one" tag and that's why I have the Bears winning a 20-17 tight one. As good as Gould!

Just as I did with the NFC Championship game, I'm going to put the Twitter widget to work here. Seemed to put all the info in one central location and made it fun to see what was going on from both perspectives.


And now to the NFL Picks for Week 3. Last week I went 13-3 which puts me at 23-9 for the season. That's a 72 percent success rate which is good enough to put me in the top 4,841 in the world on ESPN.com. But enough bragging. On to this week's prognosis. Winners, as always, in bold.
Patriots at Bills
49ers at Bengals
Dolphins at Browns
Broncos at Titans
Lions at Vikings
Texans at Saints
Giants at Eagles
Jaguars at Panthers
Chiefs at Chargers
Jets at Raiders
Ravens at Rams
Falcons at Buccaneers
Packers at Bears
Cardinals at Seahawks
Steelers at Colts
Redskins at Cowboys

So that's my Bears-Packers score prediction. What is yours? Comment below and tell me one thing that will determine things beyond your score!

The winner of Super Bowl XLV will be...

Super Bowl weekend is finally here. As much as the Bears fan in me still aches at the thought of the Packers playing in the big game, it is still the Super Bowl and the biggest game of the year. That means it gets my full attention as a sports nerd, enthusiast and writer. All week I have been biding my time and reading up on the specifics of the game to come to a conclusion on who I will take. So here we go with my full Super Bowl XLV preview.


Let's start with the Packers. Yes, I'm a Bears fan, but I live in Wisconsin and end up reading up and watching most everything on them throughout the season. There is a story on ESPN.com Insider section (HEAD TO SUPER BOWL CENTRAL) talking about their six losses this season. The keys to the Packers losing is simple, they've given up sacks, lost the turnover battle and failed in the defensive secondary.
On the offensive side, the Packers have protected Aaron Rodgers (above) much better over the last month. A lot of that gets hidden with his escape ability, but still, sacks have not been prevalent during this five-game winning streak.
Rodgers has relied on his feet a lot more during that span. While that has helped him, it is also what got him hurt in what was one of his worst games of the season, the 7-3 loss to the Lions which saw Matt Flynn come in. He has been smarter after the concussion that followed, but the key for this game will be his ability to run and get down. The Steelers have a few head hunters who love to hit and would love to lay the smack down on the Packers QB. That jumps out to me as one of the keys to this game. If Rodgers can use his feet to get a few yards and a couple first downs to keep key drives alive, the Packers will be in good shape.
He has fixed the turnover thing, as well, but has not played the Steelers defense during that time. He did, however, play the Bears defense and threw a pair of interceptions in the NFC championship game. With many believing the Packers will try to spread the Steelers out and go with four or five receivers, he has to be smart with the ball against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
That leads me into a couple of the key matchups the Packers position players must win.  The first of which is going to be the head games that will take place between Rodgers and Troy Polamalu. Troy will be lined up all over the field and it will test Rodgers' ability to call him out and the Packers O-line ability to pick him up if he comes on a blitz.
Also, when the Packers go with four or five wideouts, they will have to survive going across the middle. If they can win that area of the field, they should be able to march the ball up and down the field.


On the Steelers side, Ben Roethlisberger can also run. The difference is that he is a big guy at 260 pounds and it hard to bring down. He is not just a threat to run and any attacks on his ability as a quarterback are just from people who do not like him in the first place. The guy threw for 500 yards in the meeting against the Packers last season and can do that again. Will he in this game? I doubt it, but he has the ability to lead a team with his arm. There is a good story in Sports Illustrated this week about what he went through during his four-week suspension at the start of the season and I can kind of feel for the guy. If he wins this game, it is going to be big for him. Dare I say, this could be the one that helps land him in the Hall of Fame if the Steelers win. Before you question that, remember Terry Bradshaw had the Steel Curtain in the 70s to help him lead the Steelers to four titles and he is in the Hall, so don't laugh at that too fast.
Back to this game, Big Ben is going to have a similar head game that Rodgers will with Polamalu with Charles Woodson. Woodson is by trade a cornerback, but likes to cover the slot receiver when the Packers are in nickel and comes on a blitz. That could be a key and he will have to be accounted for.
I wouldn't make as big of a deal of the Steelers being without their rookie center Charles Pouncey in this game as many will. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game and as I have picked up throughout the week, things have been simplified and should be OK for the Steelers line. The Packers will still want to send rushers through the middle though and is the best way to attack Big Ben.
Another key matchup to keep an eye on is Mike Wallace. He caught the game winner in the Steelers 37-36 win over the Packers last season and while he has been quiet during the playoffs, has the speed to attack this Packers secondary and go off for a big game.
On the other side of that coin is Heath Miller. There might not be a better target in the red zone not named Tony Gonzalez. While Clay Matthews is a great rusher, I'm not sure how good he is in coverage and Miller is great at getting open for Ben to find.

I'm going to make you wait for the picks. Take in the rap songs made for both teams.
First, the "visiting" Steelers: "Black and Yellow" by Wiz Kalifa


For the "home" Packers it's "Green and Yellow" by Lil Wayne


THE PICK: Had to tease you a bit. Here we go. With all of what was said above, I have a hard time thinking the Packers don't have what it takes to win this game on all front. Aside from special teams, they have everything covered.
If they can start strong and not be start struck, they'll be fine. That said, I don't see them winning this game by four points or less. It's just their track record. Either way, this will be a great one to watch and enjoy.
So, with my grandpa on my mind, I know he'll be happy to know I'm picking his Packers to win this one in a shootout, 33-28.

The Super Bowl isn't the only big game being played this weekend. Sunday during halftime of the game in Dallas, the Lingerie Football League will be holding Lingerie Bowl VII. The game keep rising in popularity. I'm pretty sure, though, it's not for the great football being played, as you can see on Coed Magazine and below...