Time to look into my NFL crystal ball

Every pundit seems to have a soap box for which to make their NFL predictions, which usually fall flat, and I figure, hell, I have the platform to do so, so why not make my motives known on how I think things will unfold this season in the greatest professional sports league in the world, the National Football League. Let's go conference-by-conference, then to the playoffs. I'd say cue up Hank Williams, Jr., but he doesn't do that anymore. Anyway, here goes.....

We'll head first to the AFC, where the talk all preseason has been about the Houston Texans. They have a stellar defense that put the offense on its back and carried it into the divisional round of the playoffs last season, so that makes sense. I have a couple question marks about their offense, mainly injury concerns, but feel the defense, if it can fill the hole left by the departure of Mario Williams (J.J. Watt time!), then they could be in a great position to have the No. 1 seed when all is said and done. Winning the South won't be a question, but getting that top spot could be. Andrew Luck will surprise some with how well he will play this year, but he will still make the "rookie" mistakes to put his team on the outside looking in.

Another sexy pick this offseason and preseason has been the Kansas City Chiefs and, I can see why with the team getting healthy, but now that everyone has sold out on the San Diego Chargers, I get the sense this would be the season they would put something together and shock us all and do something special. That's my longshot pick. Otherwise Romeo Crennel has the horses on defense - they kept the Chiefs in games last year when they had literally no offense to speak of - and a healthy Matt Cassel to win the West. And then there's that Peyton Manning guy joining the Broncos. With a defense that made Tim Tebow look good, seeing Peyton do anything but win is hard for me to imagine.

In the North, the Steelers and Ravens have been the class of the division for years, but the Bengals came out of nowhere last year and gave the division three teams in the playoffs. Things could be close again this year, but the rest of the conference has gotten stronger, so I'm giving the division to Pittsburgh and thinking the Ravens could get a Wild Card spot.

In the East, New England is hands down the best team, but seeing what Buffalo did this offseason to bolster its defense has to make one think about the possibilities of the Bills getting back to the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. Could this be the year? Not for a division title, but a Wild Card, yes. The Patriots are still too good, despite not having a running game (that Tom Brady guy is pretty good).


And now the Playoffs...
AFC Wild Card
Steelers over Chiefs
Broncos over Ravens

AFC Divisional
Texans over Steelers
Broncos over Patriots

AFC Championship
Texans over Broncos


Now to the NFC....
The NFC East is up for grabs this year as no one can seem to agree on who will emerge (everyone, but the Redskins gets a steady mention as a favorite). For me, Michael Vick doesn't stay healthy enough to lead the Eagles, and if one game is any indication, the Giants will have a hard time running the ball again this season. That makes me think this could finally be Tony Romo's year to get the Cowboys into the playoffs with a division crown.

In the South, the Saints will get a fight from the Panthers and a bigger one from the Falcons, but they still have the gunslinger in Drew Brees to lead this team, with our without a bounty system, to a division title. The Falcons may be good enough to get one of the Wild Card spots, but it's going to be close with the number of good teams in the NFC North.

Speaking of the North, this could be the best division in football this year with three teams that have a legit shot to not only win the division, but earn the No. 1 seed if things fall right. That said, even with my allegiances, the Packers have the passing game to light up the scoreboard and carry their defense to another playoff berth. Will they win the division? That all may hinge on the ability of the Chicago Bears offensive line to keep Jay Cutler upright and able to throw to his now stellar receiving core led by Brandon Marshall. Detroit can be a party spoiler, but needs to put it together on defense against both the Bears and Packers strong passing attacks.

In the West, San Francisco was the surprise of the season. This year, the 49ers will not surprise anyone and STILL get the job done with their gritty defense and a Randy Moss who has something to prove and will provide a great compliment to an offense with some already solid weapons. The Seahawks may be the surprise of this year's season, but Russell Wilson might not be enough to get them into the playoffs.

Here's the playoff breakdown
NFC Wild Card
Bears over 49ers
Saints over Falcons

NFC Divisional
Bears over Cowboys
Saints over Packers

NFC Championship
Bears over Saints

SUPER BOWL XLVII
Bears over Texans
OK, so maybe a little crazy. Maybe I'm just wishing this, but the Bears have the weapons in place and I'll break them down in the next couple days to get a look at what needs to happen to get them to this point.

Bears success in Week 2 lies on Jay Cutler's shoulders

After making a statement that they should not be overlooked this season back in Week 1, the Bears go on the road this week to take on the New Orleans Saints.
All of the talk this week revolves around the noise in the SuperDome and the blitzes the Saints and defensive coordinator Greg Williams will send at Jay Cutler. That makes Cutler's game Sunday the most important of any other player on the field, or maybe a close second to the five guys on the offensive line in picking up those rushers and dealing with the noise.
It's an area, that could get rough considering the three sacks the Bears gave up last week without much blitzing from the Falcons. If the Saints are able to load up on one side and the linemen are a couple paces slow in getting off the ball because they can't hear the snap count, things could get dicey. I put things then on Jay's shoulders to make the quick reads and calls to get the ball out of there in time from the play calls of Mike Martz.
As I wrote Monday, Martz showed some signs of helping out his quarterback in Week 1 with short passes mixed with the down-the-field routes and Jay hit them, specifically the touchdown pass to Matt Forte and the long pass and run by Devin Hester that set up another touchdown. He'll have to adapt the same way this week. A change this year is his playcalling from the booth, which gives a different vantage point and focusing on the weapons this offense has next to Jay.
Martz seemed to do a decent job calling plays that featured each of those weapons in Matt (Pay the man!) Forte, Devin Hester, Johnny Knox and Roy Williams. All four guys, and I could throw Matt Spaeth in the mix, too, had an impact last week. How often has a Bears fan been able to say that of four and maybe five receivers? The credit for that goes to both Martz and Cutler for getting them in position to make the right plays.
Will that pay off this week in New Orleans? With the blitzers coming from all angles, it will if Jay get's that extra second over the middle to get the ball out and let those receivers run after the catch. That's the one area the sending of blitzers from all angles allows. If Hester catches a ball in space and has a chance to turn on the jets, he can run away from anyone.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears got a great performance from their front four and saw Brian Urlacher have one of his better games in the last couple years. If the line can have a similar effort this week, they will be in a great spot to win.
It's no secret Drew Brees can pick a defense apart if he has time to survey the field and find an open receiver. If the Bears are able to get pressure on him with the likes of Julius Peppers, Harry Melton, Anthony Adams and Israel Idonoje they could have a good shot at winning.
The one question mark is what they do about the Saints' running backs of Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram. Ingram would be a more conventional back, but Sproles ripped apart the Packers defense at times and I'd be tempted to put a safety or a defensive back on him if he splits out wide. There really isn't another way to keep up with him. I'm not sure Lance Briggs can keep up with him and I know Nick Roach can't, which is why the DB option makes sense. The Bears will have to find a way to quiet that down, as you'd expect Sean Payton to exploit that matchup in some way.
The biggest thing that might propel this defense is having the heart and soul of it back in Urlacher who left to lay his mother to rest in Texas Wednesday, after she passed away Monday. You know he is going to play possessed and I expect the other 10 guys on the field to play for him. Knowing this unit, they are very close knit and have been together for a long time. I heard it in an interview with Lance Briggs today and he was feeling for Lac and it just seems like a week for this unit to have one of those games where they make the great plays. It is just meant to be.
The Pick: I see a few scores in this game and it will be a close one. But I'm confident the Bears line can continue to improve and, if they can get out front early in this game to take the crowd out of things a bit, can get the job done against the blitzes. On defense, I know Julius Peppers will have a great game, but would expect someone else to emerge on the line. Adams? Maybe.
That's why I see Bears 30, Saints 27 as the final score. It's that close and if the Bears can come away with this road win, they have to be taken very seriously heading into Week 3.

NFL Picks
Last week I went 10-6, which for the first week wasn't that bad. Once the landscape of the league gets laid out, it will get better. Let's jump right into Week 2. My picks are in bold, as always.
Raiders at Bills
Bears at Saints
Browns at Colts
Chiefs at Lions
Packers at Panthers
Ravens at Titans
Bucs at Vikings
Jaguars at Jets
Cardinals at Redskins
Seahawks at Steelers
Cowboys at 49ers
Bengals at Broncos
Texans at Dolphins
Chargers at Patriots
Eagles at Falcons
Rams at Giants

Wilber's Way NFL Preview edition is here!

The time has finally come! It's opening week of the NFL season, so I'm going to shift the blog a bit this week in that direction to get things kicked off. I'll introduce a couple staples along the way I'll try to have posted each week so you'll be sure to check in and see what I'm thinking on some things.
 In past year's I've broken down each division. This year, like last season, I'm thinking that is just too much work for something no one really reads. I, basically just want to go on record with my NFL picks so people can come back to them later in the season.
Well, here we go.

First, the NFC
North: This kind of spoils my Bears preview in a couple days, but I can't see the Packers losing the division this season.  As much of a Bears fan as I am I read a lot about the team I live two hours from and know what they're doing. Their only weakness is going to be that O-line again, just as it was last year. I didn't watch a second of preseason and know there were hiccups of epic proportions at times. Aaron Rodgers is too good to let it drag him down and that defense flies around the field and causes chaos unlike anything else in the league. They'll be a force and will be 12-4 this season. That will not be without a fight from my Bears, who I have earning a Wild Card spot this season. Sorry, one of my favorite publications has the Lions making the playoffs which I cannot disagree with more. I know you know football, but you have to walk before you can run. Donovan McNabb in Minnesota will have its ups and downs and that defense is awful. So my Bears find a way and make the dance.

East: Is anyone on the planet not picking the Eagles to win this division? Well, I'm right there, with them. All the publications are jumping on Michael Vick for MVP. I'm not there yet, as he was very pedestrian towards the end of last season (starting with the Bears game). But he'll be better this season with the big money in his back pocket and all of their weapons around him are just too good. Oh, and the moves they made with their defense have them in a very good spot too. Tight ends and running backs are going to be the only guys getting passes when you play that D. That's why I have them going 11-5 this season.

West: Last year the Seahawks made the playoffs with a 7-9 record and knocked off the defending champs in the Wild Card round. Sam Bradford will continue to be the savior in St. Louis and the Rams will win this division as he makes huge strides toward being one of the premiere passers in this league as I see them going 9-7 this season. Not great, but a step in the right direction for a team that continues to get better on both sides of the ball. 

South: This might be the best division in the NFC and even the league this season and could come down to a three-horse race. But really, it's a two-team race with New Orleans and Atlanta holding the key to the division title. The Saints defense was gashed last season at times and hasn't gotten any better. In fact, they've probably gotten worse, despite what you read in SI saying otherwise, I disagree. On offense, yes Drew Brees is a beast, but naming Olin Kruetz as a key offensive line acquistion shows it wasn't that great of a free agent periord. He's a great leader, but was slightly above average, at best over the last couple seasons. I don't see their line and running game being that much of a consistent factor this season, opening the door for the Falcons to repeat as division champs. That playoff loss last season opened their eyes and they will be focused. For the Bucs, they have a shot at helping the South sweep the Wild Card spots in the playoffs if they can continue to build on last season. I really like their quarterback Josh Freeman. Speaking of QBs, it's going to be a rough year again in Carolina for Cam Newton. It was a rough rookie year for Peyton Manning, too, so don't read too much into it. I'm not sold on him being great, but I'm not sold on him being awful, either. We'll have to see.

Wild Cards: Bears (10-6)- They key will be how will Roy Williams steps up, or allows Johnny Knox to take over the No. 1 receiver position. That, of course, means the offensive line has to give Jay enough time to throw the ball. I'll have more on them tomorrow, so I won't get too deep into it now.
Saints (10-6)- Drew Brees is too good to let this team miss the playoffs. This year will be all about the shootouts if they want to string wins together.

Playoff teams and seeds
1. Packers (12-4)
2. Eagles (11-5)
3. Falcons (10-6)
4. Rams (9-7)
5. Bears (10-6)
6. Saints (10-6)

 AFC
North: This division comes down to the Steelers or the Ravens. Which will it be? The Steelers just seem to get it done in those big games and it's all because of Ben Roethlisberger. I like Joe Flacco, but Big Ben is just on a diffeent level that performs in those big games. He gets it done in those games and the Steelers are winning this division. The Bengals and Browns? Well, the stripes in Cinncy won't be a factor and the Browns will show flashes, but can't compete with Steel City or B-More. Give me the Steelers winning this division with an 11-5 mark and the Ravens close behind in a Wild Card spot.

South: When was the last time the Colts weren't a lock to win this divison? It's been forever. Peyton Manning's neck and lack of arm strength have everyone, including me question who will win the division this season. I worked it by process of elimination. The Jaguars just cut David Garrard and are going with a rookie this season under center. Something tells me Jack Del Rio won't be around after this season. Too many headaches, sorry Jags fans, the blackouts will be the beginnings of your worries. In Tennessee there's a coach not named Jeff Fischer on the sidelines and that doesn't sit well with me. Plus, Matt Hasselback is in town with a rookie itching to get in the game. Things go south, and they will, look for this thing to go even more out of control. That leaves Houston. They have a premiere wide receiver in Andre Johnson, what could be a top-tier running back in Arian Foster and a QB in Matt Schaub that could make this offense very dangerous. The question mark lies on defense where Wade Phillips has made Mario Williams an outside linebacker in installing his 3-4 defense. Not a big deal, but you have to expect some hiccups along the way. This all comes down to how long Peyton is out for and how well he plays, but I might be on board with everyone else in thinking if Houston is finally going to make the playoffs and have its first winning season in franchise history, this is the year.

East: Another year and another Patriots division title? Yep. And this year could be another one of those great years for the Pats, who welcome Chad Ochocinco into the fold and will have him determined the way Randy Moss was when he first got to Boston. Look for that defense to get a little better this year, too, and be a force that will have Bill Bellichek's boys 11-5 this season. The Jets will be right in the mix, as well, but after missing out on getting a shutdown corner to compliment Darelle Revis on the other side, this secondary might be a little soft (not awful, just with a hole or two) that good quarterbacks will find ways to exploit. The Bills will make vast improvements this season and the Dolphins will be solid, too, but I don't see them being on the level of the Jets and Pats.

West: The Chargers had the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense last season and missed the playoffs because their special teams were absolutely horrendous at times. That won't happen again, even with Norv Turner leading the way, as this team will go 13-3. I know Philip Rivers is getting a lot of MVP talks and he deserves it with the year he had last year with his best receiver a no-show until November. Their closest run should come from the Broncos and Kyle Orton. I just like John Fox and his style and think he'll have this team in a position to win. Why no Chiefs in the hunt? Their starters lost to the Packers backups in the preseason finale. They've looked absolutely awful in preseason and will take a couple steps back this year. Just hand the ball off to Thomas Jones

Wild Cards: Ravens (10-6) This team is solid, but comes up short in the regular season against the Steelers. That's the difference between the division champs.
Jets (10-6) There is little to not like about this team, but when you reside in the same division as the Patriots, you earn Wild Card spots every year. Rex Ryan can hate me now and yell at me.

 Playoff teams and seeds
1.Chargers (13-3)
2. Patriots (12-4)
3. Steelers (11-5)
4. Texans (10-6)
5. Ravens (10-6)
6. Jets (10-6)

NOTE:
The main one during the NFL season will be my picks. I am in a few Pick 'em groups on the Interwebs and will post my picks each week (straight up) for EVERY game. Over the last couple of years I've posted about a 70 percent success rate. I plan on having that up on Wednesday or Thursday's throughout the year. Be sure to check out my Twitter or Facebook for updates to be sure when I'll have them posted.
Here's the schedule of what's to come this week:

Wednesday: Today was my NFL preview for the regular season. I'm going to make you come back and check out my Playoff preview tomorrow to see who I have winning the Super Bowl. Yeah, I'm cruel, but like the hits. You'll be back! Plus, I feel the need to pop off on why Peter King, one of my fave NFL writers is off base with his picks in the latest NFL preview issue.

Thursday: My full Chicago Bears Preview - I can't get enough of Jay Cutler or Brian Urlacher. I've got some things I'm ready to pop off on. Plus, I have to get my NFL picks in for the Kickoff game. People in Wisconsin are pumped for this game, I guess.