Which Brewers starting pitcher has most to prove in 2012?

With Monday being the first official workout for Brewers pitchers and catchers at Maryvale Baseball Park in Phoenix, it's time to start thinking baseball. More specifically, I really wanted to take a closer look at the starting pitchers on the Brewers staff in this post. As I talked in a post last month, all five starters return from last season. Usually with everyone back complacency could be a factor in performance this season. But with this group, all five have something to prove. With the status of Ryan Braun up in the air, the team will lean on the pitching staff to carry them through the time he is out.

We'll start with the man that proved he was the ace last season, Yovani Gallardo (Baseball reference stats). He was the man that the team turned to in the playoffs to get big wins and throughout the regular season was a horse, winning a career high 17 games and was the first Brewers pitcher to strike out 200 batters in three consecutive seasons in team history. His 3.52 ERA was a career high for a full season. Most importantly, he walked just 59 batters, or just 2.6 per nine innings. That's a full one batter less than his previous best set in 2010. The big number for Gallardo, and this is what he has to prove is the 207 innings he threw last season, plus the 26 innings he threw in 12 days in the playoffs.. That's 44 1/3 innings more than his previous high for a season. Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci has come up with the "Verducci Effect" which tracks the jumps in innings a pitcher makes from year to year. Anything over 30 for a 25-and-under hurler has a good chance of resulting in injury or regression the following season. So, he's got that and a season to show that he is in fact the true ace of the staff this season.

After Gallardo, Zack Greinke proved himself last year, after getting the ire of fans with his basketball injury during spring training. After missing all of Spring Training Greinke took only three starts in the minors before he made his Brewers debut May 4. While the Brewers played well behind him when he took the mound, his performances were lackluster at times. The Brewers went 10-5 in his first 15 starts (he went 7-4), but his 4.84 ERA was not Greinke-like (Game logs). His strikeouts were there, but he'd get wreckless at times. The second half of the season was where Greinke turned the corner and showed why he has a Cy Young award in his trophy case. From July 27 on, Greinke was 9-2, leading the Brewers to an 11-2 record during that stretch. He posted a 2.77 ERA, struck out 87 while walking just 27 (Game Logs). Those were the numbers fans were expecting out of the gate. This season, he's got to make it through the spring and then start the season with the same effort he finished last season with. If he does that, he will push Gallardo and have a shot to win an NL Cy Young. Oh, and how can I forget he is a free agent after this season. So he's auditioning for a possible contract. Now, the Brewers are rumored to want a deal with him and it sounds like something he would welcome. We shall see how that pans out.

Shaun Marcum is the middle man in the starting rotation and could take the cake as the most interesting and maybe the one with the most to prove. I can't remember a guy having a regular season like him and then tanking that bad. He pitched just 9.2 postseason innings and allowed 17 hits and 16 runs, all earned, during that time. Yeah, it was bad. That makes what he did during the regular season seem out of place. It was rather stellar. He went 13-7 and posted a 3.54 ERA which was .02 behind Gallardo as the best of the staff (Game Logs). His 200.2 innings were a career high. But, when it comes down to it, the awful outings he had in Phoenix in the NLDS and the two outings in the NLCS against the Cardinals are the black eye on his 2011 season. Like it or not, that's how it is. Add to the fact that he's also a free agent adds to the mix where other teams will be keeping an eye on him. When it comes to the Brewers signing him, I really only see them signing either he or Greinke. Not both.

Randy Wolf was as consistent a No. 4 starter last season as there was in the Majors. He hadhttp://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2149688284499501924#editor/target=post;postID=7026812923272109016 the most innings during the regular season with 212.1 innings pitched and his 3.69 ERA is the fourth lowest of his 12-year Major League career. He struck out 134 hitters while walking 66, but allowed just 214 hits for the regular season (Game Logs). Those numbers aren't jump-off-the-page great, but they are pretty good. During the Brewers run last season when they took over the NL Central, Wolf was the focal point. He won five straight decisions in late July into early August. He was the tough-luck loser last season at times, losing five games on the season when he allowed three runs or less. What does Wolf have to prove? He too is a free agent after this season. It seems unlikely the team will resign him as he will be 35 this season. Last season he was the pitcher they wanted when they signed him prior to the 2009 season.

Chris Narveson is back to close out the rotation and after listening to a discussion on ESPN Radio in Milwaukee Monday, one would think he would be the guy that could become complacent. But Drew Olson doesn't see that happening with him. I say he has something to prove because the pitching staff for 2013 is going to be retooled and if he wants to be a part of it and move up from the No. 5 slot, he'll have to work at it. At one point in 2011 Narveson was 2-4 through May with a 4.68 ERA. Once the calendar turned to June, Narvey turned it on. He went 9-4 the rest of the way with a 4.32 ERA (Game Logs). That's about what you would want out of your No. 5 guy.

So, after all that, it seems pretty clear who the guy with the most to prove is. That's Marcum. The postseason can define guys. If there were ever a reason people, or fans, can point to and say "That's why the team didn't go to the World Series," it's him. The biggest way to make us as fans forget about that is to have the same regular season he had last year. General Managers across the Majors will also have to say he is the most interesting because he was an innings hog last year. It was a personal high for him, but it showed the elbow had healed after his Tommy John Surgery. If he backs that up again and something can't be worked out to stay in Milwaukee, a big deal awaits him next season.

What do you think? Comment and let me know!

Fate of Brewers season doesn't entirely lie with Braun

With Ryan Braun finally getting his day to appeal his positive test for a banned substance, the National League MVP and the Brewers can finally start to put the final pieces together for the 2012 season. Will the Brewers have their superstar left fielder or not though the first two months of the season? We will find out shortly.

Maybe it's the optimist in me and believer that this season will be just as special as the last, but part of me thinks the Brewers can hold the fort down while Braun is away and keep the National League Central crown within reach if he is out for the worst-case scenario of 50 games. Don't get me wrong, Brauns .332 batting average, 33 home runs, 111 RBIs and 33 stolen bases will be hard to replace in the top third of the lineup on top of the loss of Prince Fielder, but for 50 games and 57 days, the Brewers can weather the storm. Here's how.

When Rickie Weeks went out in August last year, fans, myself included, feared things could go south, but the pitching emerged to carry the team to the NL Central title. That will have to happen at the start of this season. All five starters return and all have something to prove.

Yovani Gallardo is ready to prove he is a true ace, even if he's not the pitcher on the staff with a Cy Young Trophy in his trophy case. As good as he was in the playoffs last year, is the level I expect to see Gallardo all season. He was inconsistent at times last year letting his pitch count get the best of him and force him out of games early. I'd expect to see that as a point of emphasis from the start of Spring Training.

Zack Greinke, you know the guy who does have a Cy Young, wants to put the rough spring from last year behind him and I expect him to come out of the gates strong. While Gallardo was shining in the postseason last year, Shaun Marcum was busy flipping his glove in disgust as he lost all three starts in awful fashion. (Can't forget the glove flip in Phoenix!). The kicker on top of it all for Greinke and Marcum is both are free agents after the season and are auditioning for big money elsewhere.

Randy Wolf is in a similar boat in the final year of his three-year deal. Last year he was the guy that was the most consistent pitcher during the season, but got little to no run support in some of his best outings. Finally Chris Narveson is back in the five-hole at the back of the rotation and has to prove himself to a point to maybe earn a chance top step up on the rotation with possibly two or three of the other guys leaving the rotation after the season.

As for the offense, the thought with filling the shoes of Prince was not to drop it all on one guy, but to spread the load throughout the lineup. That has to be the mindset of Corey Hart, Weeks (who should move up to the No. 3 spot in front of Aramis Ramirez) and everyone including the new guy Nori Aoki.

Only time will tell how things unfold, but the pieces are in place for the Brewers to be at least within shouting distance of the top of the division if Braun is out for 50 games at worst or (what I'm hoping for) a 25-game ban. The pitching is the key to the team, especially the starters out of the gate.

Brewers Nation: Don't panic as postseason looms

Call me the eternal optimist or a fan that thinks the last week of the Brewers season was what I called it a couple weeks back, a market correction. That's why I'm not worried about this team going forward to not only clinch the National League Central title and beyond into the NL Divisional Series.

And before you jump on me for blindly thinking like this, I'll tell you why. Of course there's Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, a healthy Rickie Weeks getting healthy and back in his groove, but most importantly a steady pitching staff that has been the backbone of this team all year.

Yes there have been (and almost always are) ups and downs over the course of a baseball season. That has certainly been the case for the Brewers, but over the last week to 10 days, it has been a bit of feast or famine for this Brewers team as it works itself out of the funk it was in against the Cardinals and Phillies at the start of the month.

The biggest key I can take out of the funk and even the great weekend showing in Cincinnati was that while Braun and Fielder have played well, most would agree they are not on the tears we saw them on at times during the season. These things go in cycles and you'd have to think things are coming back toward at upswing at the right time. Last Tuesday night's game against the Rockies showed what both mean to this team, combining to homer for both of the team's runs that led to the dramatic walk-off victory (Did you see us in the 223?). The two of them getting hot at the right time, in the playoffs no less would make this team almost unstoppable. While that may be a bit of me wishing, I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility as niether have shown signs of cracking under the pressure of clinching a division title in this race.

There are no trades that could help a team looking into the playoffs into September, but that's what the return of Rickie Weeks from the disabled list feels like for this Brewers team. Sure this team went on it's great 27-5 run while he was on the DL, but the offense was not what it was with him in it as the pitching carried this team. Manager Ron Roenicke will tell you this team needs Weeks if it wants to make noise in the playoffs.

Weeks finally played his first full game since coming off the DL Monday night and said he felt pretty good about things. It's been a slow process, but you can see he's starting to get his bearings back at the plate and will serve as great protection to Braun and Fielder hitting out of the No. 5 spot in the lineup with his power and speed that could set the table for the bottom half of the order to do some damage.

Of course a team is only as good as it's starting pitcher and this season has shown what that looks like in Milwaukee for the first time in a long time. Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf and even Chris Narveson were the big part of the late July-August push that put this team where it is now. While they've had a couple hiccups in recent weeks, I'd give them a couple passes as you'd expect this offense to back them with a couple runs each night, so it's not all their fault for a couple of the losses, you just want them to stay consistent and for much of the last week, the top four especially have been spot on. There really isn't much question as to whether they can keep it up because they have for the entire second half of the season.

This team has all the tools it needs to be successful this postseason. The next week will be a bit of preparation for that as I'd expect Roenicke to tweak the pitching rotation to line things up for the NLDS, but playing meaningful games up until the final day of the season will pay dividends. Should be fun to watch unfold.

Marcum 'Just the start' could mean good things for Brewers

When news dropped Sunday the Brewers had dealt Brett Lawrie to Toronto for Shaun Marcum, I was immediately excited. I had to double check the stats, to be honest, but knew Doug Melvin would get a guy that could make an immediate impact if he could.
That's exactly what he did. Last year Marcum went 13-8 with a 3.64 ERA (FULL STATS) in the brutal AL East. Yes he did miss all of 2009 after having Tommy John Surgery, but he bounced back and threw 195 innings. That makes me a little less worried about him being a so-called "injury risk" and more excited he will contribute for most of 2011. He was the ace of the Toronto staff after Doc Haladay left town and will fit right between Randy Wolf and the ace of the Brewers, Yovanni Gallardo. The new man at the helm, Ron Roenicke, has already gone on record and said he's "very excited" about the arrival of Marcum to the staff having watched him from the opposing dugout.
Of course, the quote from Melvin still rings out that his is "just the start" of what he wants to do this winter. I'm hoping they can put together something for one more arm - not sure on Carl Pavano, but I saw he talked to his agent - to round out the rotation that already includes Yo, Marcum, Wolf and Chris Narveson. What that move is, I don't know yet, but I'm sure it has to be something of importance. Yes, they would like to deal Carlos Gomez, but you can't just ship your trash out the door and get something great for him. You can't get too much into the rumors you read during the day on Twitter - There's a lot of them - you just have to wait and see what gets finalized.
Let's just hope Marcum is nothing like the douche it has been revealed that Brett Lawrie was. A blog I've mentioned on these pages before, Miller Park Drunk, has posted pictures from Lawrie's Facebook page and let's just say the guy is a bit of a tool. Here's the link. What is up with CLEAN Eminem lyrics? I know you are a bit of a public figure, but what the hell?


Moving on now to my Bears, who had to get a ripping from the usually lax Coach Lovie at halftime in Detroit to move to 9-3. They still aren't getting any respect and the skeptics stood up and pointed when things got dicey at Ford Field, but this Bears team is for real. Make no mistake, they have come along since the beginning of the season, but they are for real.
I watched some video on ESPN.com today that featured Trent Dilfer telling me why the Bears were not Super Bowl contenders and he said because they are built around defense and don't ask the offense to do most of the heavy lifting, they are not even being considered, or shouldn't be.
Hey Trent, what were you on that Tampa Bay team that won the Super Bowl? The defense did everything and you were asked to just not mess it up.
Now, I'm not saying the Bears are going to win the Super Bowl, but being in a spot to earn a bye in the NFC playoffs has to put them in the discussion and he's being asinine for dismissing them so quickly. They surely have the defense that will make noise in December and we'll get to see it get tested in the final four weeks of the season. With games against the Patriots, Vikings, Jets and Packers, that defense will need to step up if they want to hold on to the NFC North lead and earn that bye. Yes, the team is built around defense, but since the bye week (Week 9), the Bears have the second highest third down conversion percentage at just over 52 percent and Jay Cutler is not making the stupid plays. The biggest key has been the emergence of BOTH Matt Forte and Chester Taylor. That means the offensive line has figured it out, having played the same five guys since then.

Alright, I don't get into college football much here on the blog, but that "Teach me how to Bucky" was quite ridiculously awesome. So, when the same folks to another video, you have to take notice. This time "We're Smelling Roses."


It is now time for the Nussie Hunter portion of the broadcast. Today, I introduce you to a woman you probably don't know. Her name is Daphne Joy and she's downright amazing. I found her on Twitter and you can too, here.