Predicting the 2014 Milwaukee Brewers

Every team in Major League Baseball has hope this time of year as Spring Training breaks and Opening Day is just around the corner. For Milwaukee's Brewers those hopes are tied to three main things. Those three things are simple. Firsts, it's the performance of Ryan Braun. Second, the overall health of the team, and finally the depth of their starting rotation. If things come out right in all three of those areas, the Brewers could be in the hunt for one of the two National League Wild Card spots and finish the season with 85 wins.

Let's first look at Ryan Braun. Back in January, I wrote that the Brewers needed Braun to be what the back of his baseball card says he is. Looking at the team that has come north from Maryvale Baseball Park, this couldn't be more true. If you read some of the projections in the fantasy baseball circles many are calling for Braun to be a shell of the player he was before last season when he missed 101 games between injury and suspension. I can't see that happening and his spring numbers show that. He hit a home run off the second pitch he saw this spring. he is motivated and primed to carry the team again. 

The key to him being able to do that is the second part of what will make the team successful: health. Last year from Braun, to Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez the Brewers had key parts missing lots of time and it showed with what the team did on the field. This season, Hart is gone and Weeks is in a platoon, so they are not as big of a part of this team. The others, however, are back in town and need to have solid years if the Brewers want to be impact players in the National League Central. Ramirez has looked like his old self in spring and has gotten over his knee injury from a year ago. Just like last year, though, it could come out of nowhere. For Gomez, he plays with such wreckless abandon, an injury is not out of the question every time he make a catch at the wall or a diving play in center field. 

Onto the starting pitching, where on paper, it would appear the Brewers have assembled one of their best staffs in recent memory outside of the 2011 team that won the NL Central. Yovani Gallardo will start Opening Day with Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza to follow, then Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada will round out the starting five. Lohse and Garza have shown flashes that they could be aces over the course of the last season while the youngsters in Peralta and Estrada will need to find consistency this season to cement their spots on the Brewers rotation. 

Some publications have had the Brewers finishing fourth in the division again and I could see that if things hold pat from last season when the the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates all made the postseason. Milwaukee does have the potential to push through and mix things up a bit. The first six weeks of the season could be telling with a hearty helping of intra-division games on the slate that could set things up for who will be in it in June and July. Last season, the Brewers stumbled in May going 6-22. To end the season eight games under .500, the team cannot afford to have that big of a set back if playoffs are going to be a possibility. 

PREDICTION

With the pieces the Brewers have this season and the chip on Braun's shoulder, this team can compete for a Wild Card spot and be 85-77 this season. Braun will have 35 homers and be in the MVP discussion. 

Brewers impress with new Carlos Gomez bobblehead

If you follow me on Twitter, you know I've been critical of the Brewers and their selection of bobblehead giveaways for this season, as a whole. I mean, they aren't exactly impressive with guys that have not been on the team for a full season getting their own bobble, or going to the other direction with another Robin Yount bobble in yet another different uniform. As someone already with 65 bobbles in my collection, I'm allowed to be a littel critical and recognized as a bit of an expert.

That was, however, until the team unveiled the new Gold Glove Carlos Gomez bobblehead giveaway set for April 26. I was lucky enough to get a gold jersey'd Gomez bobble last season and was very impressed with it and this year's ups the ante while commemorating the first Brewers gold glover since Robin Yount.

A couple things play a part in me loving this bobble so much. The first is Gomez is fast becoming my favorite player. With Corey Hart out of town, and Braun in turmoil (I still love and support), Gomez was the bright spot of the team last season in making his first All-Star game. 

This bobble has the Gold Glove and his feet are not even on the ground! Yeah, it's pretty awesome.

This falls in line with the other bobble that has been released, although as a season-ticket-holder exclusive in the Jean Segura All-Star bobble from last season. The fact that it will be released in limited fashion will make it that much sweeter.

If the rest of the bobbles deliver like these have, already, I may have to eat crow in the bobblehead department this season.

Gomez fits perfect as Brewers leadoff hitter

With players starting to arrive in Maryvale for Spring Training, it's time to start looking at the Brewers lineup. I've been giving it some thought and it would appear every spot seems to be locked up except the top two spots and the discussion is between Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura.

Both had breakout years last year in making the All-Star team and with a healthy roster this year, could be the cogs that push the Brewers into playoff contention. But who hits where?

Norichika Aoki hit leadoff most of last season with Segura hitting second and Gomez hitting third with Ryan Braun suspended. So Segura has the recent history of hitting second and he fits the position with his average and speed.

Gomez has hit leadoff before and has a .238 career batting average. That's not a good average for that spot, but that was pre-2012 when he put everything together and turned the corner. Last year he had career highs wth a .284/.338/.506 slash line. Those are numbers that would fit great at the top of the Brewers lineup. 

His 77 stolen bases the last two season would also fit nicely at the top and are part of what helped him finish ninth in NL MVP voting last season. He has shown the ability to be able to do the little things you would think of with the stereo typical leadoff hitter, as well as show the power that has made him a threat anywhere in the lineup.

Segura has spent the vast majority of his MLB career in the No. 2 slot and has shined there. The 23-year-old had 44 stolen bases to lead the NL last year. He hit leadoff in one game in his career, so there is no history to look at there. 

The "old" ways of doing things with the stereotypical hitters in the No. 1 and No. 2 slots go out with the window with this team. It would be about building as much of a cluster as possible with guys. Of course Braun will remain in his third spot, Aramis Ramiez hits fourth and Jonathan Lucroy would follow him in the fifth slot. With those spots set, it would make sense to put guys at the top of the order who can cause chaos on the basepaths and put pressure on pitching to not only get the hitter out, but keep runners in check. 

Gomez has gotten worlds better at taking pitches and waiting for his pitch. Three years ago, Ron Roenicke would not dare put him in the top half of the lineup, but now he makes the most sense at the leadoff spot. With Segura right behind him, those are two hitters in front of the big boppers who can take bases and help manufacture runs when needed. 

In the future Segura could be the guy who hits leadoff, but right now, he is best suited for the No. 2 spot behind Gomez.

Top five Brewers storylines entering spring training

As the calendar turns to February today, it's serious time to start thinking about Spring Training. The Brewers don't report until February 15, but things are already building as to five key storylines to follow when the Brew Crew gets into Marvale Baseball Park outside Phoenix.

Topping the list of what to watch for is Ryan Braun. Simply, how will he respond to his lowest year as a pro and probably person? On top of the suspension that forced him to miss the final 65 games of the 2013 season, Braun battled injuries and missed almost 40 more games. As I wrote last month, it will be interesting to see how Braun responds to being back this season. Any offense the team missed last season can be addressed with a healthy Braun in the middle of the lineup. Things are going to get dicey on the road this season when opposing fans let Braun hear it.

Are the Brewers asking Braun to deliver MVP caliber numbers? Simply, no. They are just looking for production in line with the back of his baseball card. That would be in the area of about a .312 batting average with 36 home runs and 112 RBI.

Braun won't need to do too much if the first base position, No. 2 on my list of Brewers storylines to watch, delivers more than it did in 2013. First, the Mark Reynolds signing, then the return of Lyle Overbay, have shown that the organization realizes it's a need, but doesn't mean it will be a shining star this season. 

The team was banking on Corey Hart sticking around, and his absence will create a mix and match solution for the short term 

The third story to watch is the Rickie Weeks riddle. What will the Brewers do with him in spring training. These things have a way of working themselves out, but the Brewers have basically hinted they plan to trade Weeks and start with the season with Scooter Gennett at second base. An $11 million guy in a platoon seems a bit much for the Brewers to handle and they would probably like to pawn off some of that salary, but would need to open up the spot fo Gennett, if he delivers in Spring Training, too. 

Pitching seems to always be a need no matter the team and the signing of Matt Garza makes it less of one for the Brewers. The bullpen, however, does have plenty of unanswered questions. Most of those revolve around roles for those who will spend their time in front of Friday's Front Row Sports Grill at Miller Park. Jim Henderson is slated to start the season as closer, but the signing of Garza has bumped Tyler Thornburg to the bullpen as a possible set up man, along with the newly acquired Will Smith from the Royals in the Nori Aoki trade. Brandon Kintzler's name has been mentioned as a setup man, as he came through in that role at the end of last season. Rob Wooten saw time and shined last year, as well, so he should be back. Beyond those names, things are open for discussion. Do the Brewers take a look at Francisco Rodriguez once again (He is available)? Does a non-roster invitee like Zach Duke make the team?

How that plays out will likely decide the No. 5 storyline of the spring. What does the future hold for manager Ron Roenicke in Milwaukee? As I wrote this week, whispers are circling that if things don't end well this season for the Crew, Running Ron, the Brewers could part ways with him. Now I don't see that happening, barring a complete collapse, but that won't stop people from talking. Roenicke has shown at times he thinks way outside the box with his stealing of bases and bunt calls from guys who should not give up an at-bat, but those are marginal things. As a whole, he has not lost the clubhouse at all in his time here. The last two seasons, the team could have cashed out on the season and they came back to finish strong. That's a sign of something that should mean he sticks around for at least another year.

A couple others worth mentioning that just missed the list...

How do Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez follow up their breakout 2013 seasons?

Can Aramis Ramirez avoid a major injury this season and be a factor at the plate?

Will Jim Henderson, who had not closed Major League games before, be able to back up his 2013?

Can Kris Davis make it as an every day left fielder?

How will Ryan Braun fare in right field?

Who will hit leadoff?