Predicting the 2014 Milwaukee Brewers

Every team in Major League Baseball has hope this time of year as Spring Training breaks and Opening Day is just around the corner. For Milwaukee's Brewers those hopes are tied to three main things. Those three things are simple. Firsts, it's the performance of Ryan Braun. Second, the overall health of the team, and finally the depth of their starting rotation. If things come out right in all three of those areas, the Brewers could be in the hunt for one of the two National League Wild Card spots and finish the season with 85 wins.

Let's first look at Ryan Braun. Back in January, I wrote that the Brewers needed Braun to be what the back of his baseball card says he is. Looking at the team that has come north from Maryvale Baseball Park, this couldn't be more true. If you read some of the projections in the fantasy baseball circles many are calling for Braun to be a shell of the player he was before last season when he missed 101 games between injury and suspension. I can't see that happening and his spring numbers show that. He hit a home run off the second pitch he saw this spring. he is motivated and primed to carry the team again. 

The key to him being able to do that is the second part of what will make the team successful: health. Last year from Braun, to Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez the Brewers had key parts missing lots of time and it showed with what the team did on the field. This season, Hart is gone and Weeks is in a platoon, so they are not as big of a part of this team. The others, however, are back in town and need to have solid years if the Brewers want to be impact players in the National League Central. Ramirez has looked like his old self in spring and has gotten over his knee injury from a year ago. Just like last year, though, it could come out of nowhere. For Gomez, he plays with such wreckless abandon, an injury is not out of the question every time he make a catch at the wall or a diving play in center field. 

Onto the starting pitching, where on paper, it would appear the Brewers have assembled one of their best staffs in recent memory outside of the 2011 team that won the NL Central. Yovani Gallardo will start Opening Day with Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza to follow, then Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada will round out the starting five. Lohse and Garza have shown flashes that they could be aces over the course of the last season while the youngsters in Peralta and Estrada will need to find consistency this season to cement their spots on the Brewers rotation. 

Some publications have had the Brewers finishing fourth in the division again and I could see that if things hold pat from last season when the the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates all made the postseason. Milwaukee does have the potential to push through and mix things up a bit. The first six weeks of the season could be telling with a hearty helping of intra-division games on the slate that could set things up for who will be in it in June and July. Last season, the Brewers stumbled in May going 6-22. To end the season eight games under .500, the team cannot afford to have that big of a set back if playoffs are going to be a possibility. 

PREDICTION

With the pieces the Brewers have this season and the chip on Braun's shoulder, this team can compete for a Wild Card spot and be 85-77 this season. Braun will have 35 homers and be in the MVP discussion. 

Top five Brewers storylines entering spring training

As the calendar turns to February today, it's serious time to start thinking about Spring Training. The Brewers don't report until February 15, but things are already building as to five key storylines to follow when the Brew Crew gets into Marvale Baseball Park outside Phoenix.

Topping the list of what to watch for is Ryan Braun. Simply, how will he respond to his lowest year as a pro and probably person? On top of the suspension that forced him to miss the final 65 games of the 2013 season, Braun battled injuries and missed almost 40 more games. As I wrote last month, it will be interesting to see how Braun responds to being back this season. Any offense the team missed last season can be addressed with a healthy Braun in the middle of the lineup. Things are going to get dicey on the road this season when opposing fans let Braun hear it.

Are the Brewers asking Braun to deliver MVP caliber numbers? Simply, no. They are just looking for production in line with the back of his baseball card. That would be in the area of about a .312 batting average with 36 home runs and 112 RBI.

Braun won't need to do too much if the first base position, No. 2 on my list of Brewers storylines to watch, delivers more than it did in 2013. First, the Mark Reynolds signing, then the return of Lyle Overbay, have shown that the organization realizes it's a need, but doesn't mean it will be a shining star this season. 

The team was banking on Corey Hart sticking around, and his absence will create a mix and match solution for the short term 

The third story to watch is the Rickie Weeks riddle. What will the Brewers do with him in spring training. These things have a way of working themselves out, but the Brewers have basically hinted they plan to trade Weeks and start with the season with Scooter Gennett at second base. An $11 million guy in a platoon seems a bit much for the Brewers to handle and they would probably like to pawn off some of that salary, but would need to open up the spot fo Gennett, if he delivers in Spring Training, too. 

Pitching seems to always be a need no matter the team and the signing of Matt Garza makes it less of one for the Brewers. The bullpen, however, does have plenty of unanswered questions. Most of those revolve around roles for those who will spend their time in front of Friday's Front Row Sports Grill at Miller Park. Jim Henderson is slated to start the season as closer, but the signing of Garza has bumped Tyler Thornburg to the bullpen as a possible set up man, along with the newly acquired Will Smith from the Royals in the Nori Aoki trade. Brandon Kintzler's name has been mentioned as a setup man, as he came through in that role at the end of last season. Rob Wooten saw time and shined last year, as well, so he should be back. Beyond those names, things are open for discussion. Do the Brewers take a look at Francisco Rodriguez once again (He is available)? Does a non-roster invitee like Zach Duke make the team?

How that plays out will likely decide the No. 5 storyline of the spring. What does the future hold for manager Ron Roenicke in Milwaukee? As I wrote this week, whispers are circling that if things don't end well this season for the Crew, Running Ron, the Brewers could part ways with him. Now I don't see that happening, barring a complete collapse, but that won't stop people from talking. Roenicke has shown at times he thinks way outside the box with his stealing of bases and bunt calls from guys who should not give up an at-bat, but those are marginal things. As a whole, he has not lost the clubhouse at all in his time here. The last two seasons, the team could have cashed out on the season and they came back to finish strong. That's a sign of something that should mean he sticks around for at least another year.

A couple others worth mentioning that just missed the list...

How do Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez follow up their breakout 2013 seasons?

Can Aramis Ramirez avoid a major injury this season and be a factor at the plate?

Will Jim Henderson, who had not closed Major League games before, be able to back up his 2013?

Can Kris Davis make it as an every day left fielder?

How will Ryan Braun fare in right field?

Who will hit leadoff?

Brewers 2012 roster to be sorted out in spring training

It's only mid-January, but with the Nori Aoki (that's what we're going to call him this season) signing, things are starting to come together with the 25-man roster for the Brewers.

We are 31 days until pitchers and catchers report to Maryvale Baseball Park, so it's expected things would start clearing up by now, but it's just crazy to think about baseball with temperatures falling at or below zero this week. That said, I'd say about 20 of the 25 roster spots can be set in stone, leaving five open for discussion.

I'll start with the position players because of the two spots that could be open there, I'd say they are about locked up. Of course the starting eight (around the horn) should go Ryan Braun, Nyjer Morgan, Corey Hart, Aramis Ramirez, Alex Gonzalez, Rickie Weeks, Mat Gamel and Jonathan Lucroy. The bench should be Carlos Gomez and George Kotaras as the returners with Aoki as another outfielder and Brooks Conrad and Cesar Izturis as the nonroster invitees who have the inside track on making the team. Bopth Conrad and Izturis are switch-hitting infielders, that should help give the team some solid bats (and gloves) off the bench.

The pitching staff is a bit more wide open in the middle. Of course, all five starters return with Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson back in the fold. In the bullpen John Axford anchors the back end and the surprise return of Francisco Rodriguez solidifies the eighth inning quite well. Also back is Marco Estrada and Kameron Loe who were both valuable in the sixth and seventh inning (and beyond) last season.

That leaves three roster spots if the team is going to go with 12 pitchers. That's where spring training will decide how things fall. Manny Parra, coming off a year where he spent more time on the operating table than the baseball diamond, can show if he's healthy and be a solid lefty in the bullpen. Also, Zach Braddock could show whether or not he will be Major League worthy this season. Wily Peralta is also an option to make the move from Nashville to Milwaukee. An outside shot to make the club on Opening Day is Jed Bradley and Taylor Jungman, last year's first-round picks.

Spring Training will give Ron Roenicke time to straighten things out, but there shouldn't be many surprises unless the team makes a couple moves. Those moves would be likely financially based to get the team closer to $90 million from the $100 million the payroll is at right now.



**On a programming note, I know haven't been blogging lately, but I am planning on amping things up a lot more as we had into On Deck on the 29th and down to Phoenix for Spring Training next month. It should be a fun and interesting spring with plenty of storylines that have to sort themselves out**

Can Brewers weather storm without Weeks?

The news of Rickie Weeks severely sprained ankle might go down as the biggest injury to this team since 2008 when Ben Sheets went down at the end of the season and it cost the Brewers a shot to advance in the postseason.
Doug Melvin and the Brewers front office had set their sights on a shortstop or third baseman, but now have to shift gears to possibly bring in a second baseman for three to six weeks. as the Brewers look to make a move in the NL Central standings.
The list of Brewers needs now becomes rather simple and I'm not sure which order to put them in. The lack of a left hander in the bullpen is cause for concern. It hasn't been exposed yet, but it's a weakness that could bite this team when playing a team with strong lefties (read the Phillies). The other need is now a second baseman. Both Melvin and Ron Roenicke have both made it clear you don't replace a Rickie Weeks, so it leads me to my next question, which way to the Brewers go with this move?
The answer might be answered by the rest of the guys on the team and in the lineup when Rickie is out. With Yuniesky Betancourt, Casey McGehee and Wednesday's second baseman, Craig Counsel, both having subpar years at the plate, it would seem offense has to take priority.
Felipe Lopez was acquired and sent to Triple-A, but I'm not sure that would be anything more than a last resort. I'd have to guess sending him to Triple A signals just that. The call-up of Eric Farris, who had played second at Nashville was nothing more than a temporary roster fill to have a second baseman in town if needed. I don't see him logging much time.
It's hard to say what's out there, and as Melvin and Roenicke have both said, teams know the Brewers are desperate and can hike the price and even a midlevel guy. Regardless, I still see something getting done. In 2008, the Brewers went after Ray Durham and he played well. They need to find the 2011 Ray Durham to hold things together at the bottom of the batting order and at second base until Slick Rick returns.
As big as the K-Rod deal was, I'd venture to say, this could be the biggest move Melvin makes this season.


The Bears had been quiet in the crazy world that is NFL free agency to this point, but that all changed today. The big move of the day was one that upset me more than almost any other player on the team other than Brian Urlacher. The decision to trade Greg Olsen to the Panthers for a player to be named and a late-round draft pick, was one that was dictated by Mike Martz no doubt. We all knew he doesn't utilize a tight end, so Olsen was dealt for parts. Truth be told, he might have been my favorite Bear not named Brian Urlacher in the last five years. (Besides Rex Grossman)
The shuffling at tight end does not mean much to me behind Olsen, but it means the team is going to turn more to wide receivers and Matt Forte out of the backfield. Both of those positions were also in the news today with the possiblity of Forte holding out and Roy Williams becoming a target at wide receiver. My take on the Forte issue is quick. He knows a holdout is not good for either side, but at the same time, he is as big a part of the offense as Jay Cutler and is not getting paid anything near his worth. So he is going to do what he has to do. I am not worried he'll miss much time in the regular season.
On the Williams front, I'm not sure I'm sold on him. He took plays off in Detroit and in Dallas and will be the guy that does not have Jay's back when lame media types try to pin the game on him. That's not what they need in the locker room. He is a big target, however, and can get it done with his route running that sit well with Martz in the offensive scheme. That should be the biggest attempt at getting a No. 1 receiver in town for a while and moves Johnny Knox to the No. 2 guy and means we won't see Devin Hester unless it's a four-receiver set. Both things should make both guys better on offense.
It's a wait and see as things unfold on the rest of the possibilities that are out there. It's hard to choose what to and what not to believe when it comes to which teams are linked to which players. With camp opening Saturday and guys reporting tomorrow, things should unfold quickly. Stay tuned.

I now have a little two-part Nussie Hunter for you all. Melanie Iglesias won the Maxim Hometown Hottie Contest last year and is taking over the modeling game. She has a YouTube channel, too, which usually isn't worth a damn. She did put out a video the other day that was pretty cool that I saw on Twitter. Take a look at it. Here's also a photo for you traditionalists out there,
with a link to her Maxim gallery.

Fan dos and don'ts with Opening Day around the corner

Opening Day in Major League Baseball is now mere hours away and fans all across the country are amped up for the day. The whole experience of Opening Day is an event in itself and brings out fans to the ballpark who may not normally attend the game, or do so on this day in a different fashion than what they are used to.
On the heels of the Wilber's Way Brewers and MLB season preview yesterday, that has led me to put together some dos and don'ts for Opening Day. It's a day that seems like Amateur Hour with random fools passed out in their seats or in the parking lot before the game starts.

DO
1. Do attend a tailgate and do partake in grilling sausages and drinking adult beverages (only if you are of age, of course).
2. Do get in before first pitch if time permits. It's your first time back at the stadium in at least six months. Miller Park has a new scoreboard and is worth the time to take it in and get used to it. Take in your surroundings and get settled. Plus, both teams are fully introduced on Opening Day. It's a great time to give an extra hand and make noise for your team.
3. Do say hi to your Beerman. If you have season tickets, you likely see the same people around you all season and they will most likely be back this season. Say hi, make a purchase and don't forget to tip.
4. Do buy a media guide. It's a nerd bible, and the Opening Day edition is something that chronicles who was on the team to start the season.
5. Do stay for all nine innings. You haven't seen the team play in close to six months so why not hang around with your friends and take in all of the action. Who knows, you could witness something special.

DON'T
1.Don't drink yourself stupid before game time. Baseball is what brought you out, don't forget to enjoy that, too!
2. Don't "lose your cookies" inside the stadium. It is a sacred place and you ruin the party for not just you, but those around you. This goes with No. 1.
3. Not use your ticket. Every year I hear of fans who spend the entire game in the parking lot, drinking. You paid for that ticket into the great place that is Miller Park, don't waste your money!
4. Don't leave your seat to return to the tailgate if the game is closer than four runs before the eighth inning. I know Opening Day is a party, but don't make it seem like the tailgate is the real place to be and the Cathedral is not.
5. Start or take part in the wave. It seems like the drunkest guy is the one always starting the wave. This isn't a Badger football game, it is no place for the wave. This rule applies for ALL games after Opening Day, too.

The Brewers are in Cinncy and should play Thursday if the weather man is right. I'm hoping to get home and have a recap of Game 1 of 162.

Not sure if you saw this yet, but it's the latest YouTube sensation. Pretty sure these twins are having a conversation only they can understand. Gotta love it. So good.


Now for the Nussie Hunter portion of the program. Had to pour over a few things to find this one, as to not keep harping like Ron on the same few Nussies. Coed Magainze was good enough to bring us Katelynn Ansari. I'm pretty sure she's not related to Aziz, but she might be a tad more memorable. Take a look for yourself below and check out more of her, here.

Weeks signing shows there could be life after Prince

I know it's late, but I needed to get this posted as I have something pretty big planned for a certain sports hero of mine's birthday.
The Brewers signing of Rickie Weeks to a four-year, $38 million contract Wednesday added to what was a great offseason for the Brewers (Check Tom Haudricourt's story on the signing from the Journal-Sentinel, here). Had Rickie left with Prince at the end of the season, the right side of the infield would have been in disarray. Now, with Rickie back, the Brewers get a player they know will work hard and has worked out. They even factored into the contract his health for a fifth year. Essentially if he's an every day player that fifth year will kick in. The Brewers call it a vested-option (Adam McCalvy's story on Brewers.com), Weeks' agent just calls it a five-year deal worth $50 million. Essentially, they're both right. Weeks expects to get 600 plate appearances in 2014, which would trigger the fifth year. If there is any question he'll get that PAs, Ryan Bruan got 687 last year in 157 games, so if he plays every day, like he did last year, that should come without a problem.
As I said last week, this NEEDED to get done. Now that it has, looked what it means to this team. The Brewers will have the likes of Ryan Bruan, Corey Hart, Casey McGehee, Yovani Gallardo and Rickie Weeks under contract through the 2014 season and possibly through 2015.
That looks like a solid 2-5 in the batting order to me (I really want to move Rickie down in the order to No. 3 or No. 4 if/when Prince departs) and at some pretty respectable salaries in today's era that should be managable enough for them to add some other guys to keep things competitive.
To me, that's the biggest thing after Prince goes. No matter what happens this year, I don't want to be the 1999 Chicago Bulls or the Florida Marlins that awful the year after winning championships because key pieces left. Obviously looking at it now, expectations will likely be down going into next year, but they won't be plummeting to awful depths like the Bulls did after Michael, Scottie and Phil all left town.
Dare I say the Brewers could still be relevant going forward for years to come? Prince will be a Class A free agent at the end of the season and when he goes, he'll net the Brewers two compensatory picks. Those who say the farm system is trash, myself included, will notice how much that will help refurnish the system.
This sets up Doug Melvin and company to make a couple moves going into 2012 and 2013 that should still keep a pretty darn good and entertaining team in Milwaukee.
And as part of the discussion that isn't part of the future, one of my storylines to watch going into spring training is pretty much now a moot point. Weeks has his contract. He won't have to worry about performing for free agent money now. I was more worried about how he'd handle it than I was Prince. Fielder has had talk about him signing long-term here now for years and he has shown he can push it to the side after the initial discussions in the spring. Rickie has not had those talks and them circling may have been a factor.
The Brewers need a season out of him similar to last season. He doesn't have to be great, but the batting average can come up from last year, lifting the on-base percentage in the process, stolen base numbers should skyrocket and his overall value will go through the roof this season. Heck, his home run numbers can even come down and I'd be happy with him. Just get on base and I'll be making my "C'mon RRRRRRRRRRRRRRick!" Chant from section 223 Row 6, Seat 7 for this season and a many more to come!

Going to get right into the Nussie Hunter portion of the broadcast right away now. Was talking with a friend of mine today and Sofia Vergara came up. She has come a long way from being the hot Latin chick on Entourage. She is now one of the stars on one of TVs best shows. That accent is just as good as her body, too.

Can the National League please win an All-Star Game?!

Who would have thought when it happened in 2002 that it would be the closest the National League would get since 1996. The tie at the Miller Park Major League Baseball All-Star Game was the last time the NL has not lost the Mid-Summer Classic in 13 years and with it being the determining factor in home field for the most important series in the sport, doesn't bode well for the Senior Circuit.
While ratings were down slightly nationwide, it was a hit in Milwaukee, ranking just second in the country to just the host city of St. Louis.

The game itself was a solid game. Kind of a lame statement I know, but it wasn't expected for an All-Star Game. I don't expect scores to be 15-14, but I do expect something like 7-6, not the final of 4-3. When it came down to it, a triple followed by a sac fly turned out to be the difference.
Plus it was kind of odd the guy that won the MVP award and earned a bat for his troubles, did so with his glove, bringing a home run back to the field.

For the Brewers at the game, I have Prince at the top of the page and one night after delivering in the Home Run Derby, he came through in as a pinch hitter with an RBI double that gave the NL the lead at the time.
Ryan Braun played right field for the first time and you say it's not a big difference, but there is a bit of a different feel over there. You get used to where the center fielder is and the atmosphere near the line. Some of what makes the move easier is familiarity with the ballpark and the center fielder.
Then the late addition to the squad, the all-time saves leader, Trevor Hoffman came on and pitched a scoreless seventh inning only to watch the guy that replaced him in San Diego, Heath Bell, gave up what turned out to be the winning run for the AL.
In all, the trio represented well for the Brewers and I hope they get things started well for the second half Thursday.



The other highlight of the night was President Obama throwing out the first pitch. (Here's a look at Barack's day in pictures) I thought it was rather comical that it was one of the items up to select on the ESPN.com game "Streak for the Cash."
First of all, Albert Pujols caught it (which made me a winner), but FOX botched shooting the thing and we had to guess and wait for a second running of the first pitch to see how it went.
Gotta love how the lefty got it there. Some would object to his White Sox jacket, but hey, he's a sports fan and he's from Chicago. I have no problem with it.

Today was the premiere of the new Harry Potter movie and I listened to the Covino and Rich show the other day and they made a big deal about Emma Watson. I'm not a big fan, but hey, to each his own. She's not related to Randy Watson, so I can't get behind her. Haha.

And finally today, ESPN started it's push for the ESPY's this weekend. I must say I'm not into them at all. I'd rather bash my head against a wall, but when I checked out si.com's Hot Clicks today, Erin Andrews got me all excited for the event. Well, excited to see her anyways.
I must missed the fact the other day, she got hit in the face with a foul ball at the Mets-Dodgers game and actually had to go to the hospital. Poor thing. Hope she's OK.



And I lied with this being the finally, as I have a double dose of eye candy today. When I heard Richard Jefferson called off his wedding two hours before the ceremony I wondered what had happened. Turns out the fool still spent his $2 million on the festivities in Atlantic City and even after knowing he wasn't going through with it, passed his AmEx Black Card to his boys for the night. PARTY! So changed my mind. What a loser! Check out Kesha Ni'Cole.



OK boys and girls, now I'm done for today. Hope you enjoy it. Again, if you have anything you think can go here in terms of viral vids and pics be sure to E-mail me at wilbersway@gmail.com. On tap for tomorrow is a look at the Brewers second half. Send your comments my way about the season.