Predicting the 2014 Milwaukee Brewers

Every team in Major League Baseball has hope this time of year as Spring Training breaks and Opening Day is just around the corner. For Milwaukee's Brewers those hopes are tied to three main things. Those three things are simple. Firsts, it's the performance of Ryan Braun. Second, the overall health of the team, and finally the depth of their starting rotation. If things come out right in all three of those areas, the Brewers could be in the hunt for one of the two National League Wild Card spots and finish the season with 85 wins.

Let's first look at Ryan Braun. Back in January, I wrote that the Brewers needed Braun to be what the back of his baseball card says he is. Looking at the team that has come north from Maryvale Baseball Park, this couldn't be more true. If you read some of the projections in the fantasy baseball circles many are calling for Braun to be a shell of the player he was before last season when he missed 101 games between injury and suspension. I can't see that happening and his spring numbers show that. He hit a home run off the second pitch he saw this spring. he is motivated and primed to carry the team again. 

The key to him being able to do that is the second part of what will make the team successful: health. Last year from Braun, to Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez the Brewers had key parts missing lots of time and it showed with what the team did on the field. This season, Hart is gone and Weeks is in a platoon, so they are not as big of a part of this team. The others, however, are back in town and need to have solid years if the Brewers want to be impact players in the National League Central. Ramirez has looked like his old self in spring and has gotten over his knee injury from a year ago. Just like last year, though, it could come out of nowhere. For Gomez, he plays with such wreckless abandon, an injury is not out of the question every time he make a catch at the wall or a diving play in center field. 

Onto the starting pitching, where on paper, it would appear the Brewers have assembled one of their best staffs in recent memory outside of the 2011 team that won the NL Central. Yovani Gallardo will start Opening Day with Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza to follow, then Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada will round out the starting five. Lohse and Garza have shown flashes that they could be aces over the course of the last season while the youngsters in Peralta and Estrada will need to find consistency this season to cement their spots on the Brewers rotation. 

Some publications have had the Brewers finishing fourth in the division again and I could see that if things hold pat from last season when the the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates all made the postseason. Milwaukee does have the potential to push through and mix things up a bit. The first six weeks of the season could be telling with a hearty helping of intra-division games on the slate that could set things up for who will be in it in June and July. Last season, the Brewers stumbled in May going 6-22. To end the season eight games under .500, the team cannot afford to have that big of a set back if playoffs are going to be a possibility. 

PREDICTION

With the pieces the Brewers have this season and the chip on Braun's shoulder, this team can compete for a Wild Card spot and be 85-77 this season. Braun will have 35 homers and be in the MVP discussion. 

Top five Brewers storylines entering spring training

As the calendar turns to February today, it's serious time to start thinking about Spring Training. The Brewers don't report until February 15, but things are already building as to five key storylines to follow when the Brew Crew gets into Marvale Baseball Park outside Phoenix.

Topping the list of what to watch for is Ryan Braun. Simply, how will he respond to his lowest year as a pro and probably person? On top of the suspension that forced him to miss the final 65 games of the 2013 season, Braun battled injuries and missed almost 40 more games. As I wrote last month, it will be interesting to see how Braun responds to being back this season. Any offense the team missed last season can be addressed with a healthy Braun in the middle of the lineup. Things are going to get dicey on the road this season when opposing fans let Braun hear it.

Are the Brewers asking Braun to deliver MVP caliber numbers? Simply, no. They are just looking for production in line with the back of his baseball card. That would be in the area of about a .312 batting average with 36 home runs and 112 RBI.

Braun won't need to do too much if the first base position, No. 2 on my list of Brewers storylines to watch, delivers more than it did in 2013. First, the Mark Reynolds signing, then the return of Lyle Overbay, have shown that the organization realizes it's a need, but doesn't mean it will be a shining star this season. 

The team was banking on Corey Hart sticking around, and his absence will create a mix and match solution for the short term 

The third story to watch is the Rickie Weeks riddle. What will the Brewers do with him in spring training. These things have a way of working themselves out, but the Brewers have basically hinted they plan to trade Weeks and start with the season with Scooter Gennett at second base. An $11 million guy in a platoon seems a bit much for the Brewers to handle and they would probably like to pawn off some of that salary, but would need to open up the spot fo Gennett, if he delivers in Spring Training, too. 

Pitching seems to always be a need no matter the team and the signing of Matt Garza makes it less of one for the Brewers. The bullpen, however, does have plenty of unanswered questions. Most of those revolve around roles for those who will spend their time in front of Friday's Front Row Sports Grill at Miller Park. Jim Henderson is slated to start the season as closer, but the signing of Garza has bumped Tyler Thornburg to the bullpen as a possible set up man, along with the newly acquired Will Smith from the Royals in the Nori Aoki trade. Brandon Kintzler's name has been mentioned as a setup man, as he came through in that role at the end of last season. Rob Wooten saw time and shined last year, as well, so he should be back. Beyond those names, things are open for discussion. Do the Brewers take a look at Francisco Rodriguez once again (He is available)? Does a non-roster invitee like Zach Duke make the team?

How that plays out will likely decide the No. 5 storyline of the spring. What does the future hold for manager Ron Roenicke in Milwaukee? As I wrote this week, whispers are circling that if things don't end well this season for the Crew, Running Ron, the Brewers could part ways with him. Now I don't see that happening, barring a complete collapse, but that won't stop people from talking. Roenicke has shown at times he thinks way outside the box with his stealing of bases and bunt calls from guys who should not give up an at-bat, but those are marginal things. As a whole, he has not lost the clubhouse at all in his time here. The last two seasons, the team could have cashed out on the season and they came back to finish strong. That's a sign of something that should mean he sticks around for at least another year.

A couple others worth mentioning that just missed the list...

How do Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez follow up their breakout 2013 seasons?

Can Aramis Ramirez avoid a major injury this season and be a factor at the plate?

Will Jim Henderson, who had not closed Major League games before, be able to back up his 2013?

Can Kris Davis make it as an every day left fielder?

How will Ryan Braun fare in right field?

Who will hit leadoff?

2013 Brewers On Deck redeems itself to this fan

The winter after my Milwaukee Brewers won the National League Central title, I should have been ecstatic about getting back with my summer family and hitting up Brewers on Deck in 2012, but 15,000 people all seemingly not as big a fan as me totally turned me off.

The 2013 edition of Brewers On Deck may have saved the event in my eyes, however. The event still had longer lines than Six Flags with a ride that lasted just seconds watching a player sign a sheet of paper, but got me engulfed in the team I love and motivated me to write this.

After a tad of crazy bad luck both during the week and this morning, I actually went to the event by myself. Crazy, I know, but there were going to be friends there I could check in with and not be a complete loner the whole day, so it worked out OK.

Since I was shut out on the autograph front, I actually made a B-line to one of those long lines I was talking about. After two hours, I got a chance to greet and get an autograph from Carlos Gomez.





Waiting in line for the autograph actually made it easy on me to get in line for what could be the biggest surprise of the event, which is the success of these grab bags the team sells. Basically it's a bag of leftover bobbleheads from the year before. I know we all love bobbles, but I don't need another Randy Wolf, thank you. An Aramis Ramirez one, which I did not get last year, however, I will take! Make that one of the "rare" bobbles and it's an even bigger win. Add to that the 2011 commemorative DVD and a voucher for two free tickets Opening Week of the season, I'm I just found out why they are so successful. That's how you make $25 count!



After that, I pretty much lived at the Main Stage where the team had a Q & A with the newest Brewers, "Milwacky Squares," their play on Hollywood Squares, "Brewers Faceoff," a play on Family Feud and a media round table discussion with the beat reporters from the team (which in Milwaukee is about four guys). This was the one area I always thought the team did very well on throughout the years at their On Deck events. Well, that is if you don't count the inclusion with Dennis Haskins, who played Mr. Belding on Saved By the Bell eons ago.

There the storylines for Spring Training and the season were discussed. From Corey Hart's knee surgery and how Mat Gamel will fare at first base, to the revamped bullpen and the "Baby Brewers" starting rotation. I'll delve into all of them in the next couple of weeks as we get closer to pitchers and catchers reporting on February 12, but as the Journal-Sentinel's Tom Haudricourt said, "(GM) Doug Melvin and (owner) Mark Attanasio sat out here and are actually honest in saying they think those guys can get it done" in regards to the starting pitchers. I'm actually on board with the move, too, with the six guys vying for four spots heading to Maryvale ready to duke it out and earn their spot in the rotation. How that will fall, we have to see how it unfolds, but at least one is going to end up throwing out of the bullpen to start the season.

Things look promising for this team and there is flexibility if the team is in contention to make a move with a payroll under $80 million heading into the season. A good talk with my man +Brewer Nation motivated me to stay focused on this writing game and I'll try to focus on the Brewers, especially after the Super Bowl.

Be sure to click below for more of my photos from the day!